Educational Attainment and Adult Mortality in the United States: A Systematic Analysis of Functional Form

• Published in: Demography 2012-02, Vol.49 (1), p.315-336
• Main Authors: Montez, Jennifer Karas, Hummer, Robert A., Hayward, Mark D.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 20th century; Academic achievement; Academic degrees; Adult; Adult education; Adults; Age; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Bachelors degrees; Black People - statistics & numerical data; Black White Relations; Death; Demography; DISABILITY AND MORTALITY; Disability Evaluation; Education; Educational Attainment; Educational Status; Empirical research; Female; Gender; Geography; Health care; High school diplomas; High school equivalency programs; High Schools; Human Capital; Humans; Longitudinal Studies; Male; Marital status; Medicine/Public Health; Middle Aged; Mortality; Mortality Rates; Population; Population Economics; Predation; Professional certification; Qualifications; Risk; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Secondary schools; Social Sciences; Socioeconomic factors; Sociology; Studies; U.S.A; United States; United States of America; White People - statistics & numerical data
• ISSN: 0070-3370; 1533-7790
• DOI: 10.1007/s13524-011-0082-8

A vast literature has documented the inverse association between educational attainment and U.S. adult mortality risk but given little attention to identifying the optimal functional form of the association. A theoretical explanation of the association hinges on our ability to describe it empirically. Using the 1979-1998 National Longitudinal Mortality Study for non-Hispanic white and black adults aged 25-100 years during the mortality follow-up period (N = 1,008,215), we evaluated 13 functional forms across race-gender-age subgroups to determine which form(s) best captured the association. Results revealed that the preferred functional form includes a linear decline in mortality risk from 0 to 11 years of education, followed by a step-change reduction in mortality risk upon attainment of a high school diploma, at which point mortality risk resumes a linear decline but with a steeper slope than that prior to a high school diploma. The findings provide important clues for theoretical development of explanatory mechanisms: an explanation for the selected functional form may require integrating a credentialist perspective to explain the step-change reduction in mortality risk upon attainment of a high school diploma, with a human capital perspective to explain the linear declines before and after a high school diploma.