On the existence of a threshold for preventive behavioral responses to suppress epidemic spreading

The spontaneous behavioral responses of individuals to the progress of an epidemic are recognized to have a significant impact on how the infection spreads. One observation is that, even if the infection strength is larger than the classical epidemic threshold, the initially growing infection can di...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2012-09, Vol.2 (1), p.632-632, Article 632
Main Authors: Sahneh, Faryad Darabi, Chowdhury, Fahmida N., Scoglio, Caterina M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
639/705
639/705/1042
639/766/25
692/699
Algorithms
Behavior
Computer Simulation
Epidemics
Epidemics - prevention & control
Health Behavior
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Infection Control
Infections
Markov Chains
Models, Biological
Monte Carlo Method
multidisciplinary
Rural Population
Science
Spreading
Topology
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Summary:The spontaneous behavioral responses of individuals to the progress of an epidemic are recognized to have a significant impact on how the infection spreads. One observation is that, even if the infection strength is larger than the classical epidemic threshold, the initially growing infection can diminish as the result of preventive behavioral patterns adopted by the individuals. In order to investigate such dynamics of the epidemic spreading, we use a simple behavioral model coupled with the individual-based SIS epidemic model where susceptible individuals adopt a preventive behavior when sensing infection. We show that, given any infection strength and contact topology, there exists a region in the behavior-related parameter space such that infection cannot survive in long run and is completely contained. Several simulation results, including a spreading scenario in a realistic contact network from a rural district in the State of Kansas, are presented to support our analytical arguments.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/srep00632