Climatic drivers of seasonal influenza epidemics in French Guiana, 2006–2010

Summary Objectives Influenza seasonality remains poorly studied in Equatorial regions. Here we assessed the seasonal characteristics and environmental drivers of influenza epidemics in French Guiana, where influenza surveillance was established in 2006. Methods Sentinel GPs monitored weekly incidenc...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of infection 2013-08, Vol.67 (2), p.141-147
Main Authors: Mahamat, A, Dussart, P, Bouix, A, Carvalho, L, Eltges, F, Matheus, S, Miller, M.A, Quenel, P, Viboud, C
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
ARIMA
Biological and medical sciences
Climate
Dynamic regression
French Guiana
French Guiana - epidemiology
General aspects
Human viral diseases
Humans
Humidity
Incidence
Infectious Disease
Infectious diseases
Influenza
Influenza virus
Influenza, Human
Influenza, Human - epidemiology
Life Sciences
Medical sciences
Microbiology and Parasitology
Nasopharynx
Nasopharynx - virology
Orthomyxoviridae
Orthomyxoviridae - isolation & purification
Rain
Rainfall
Santé publique et épidémiologie
Seasonality
Seasons
Times-series
Tropical
Viral diseases
Viral diseases of the respiratory system and ent viral diseases
Virology
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Summary Objectives Influenza seasonality remains poorly studied in Equatorial regions. Here we assessed the seasonal characteristics and environmental drivers of influenza epidemics in French Guiana, where influenza surveillance was established in 2006. Methods Sentinel GPs monitored weekly incidence of Influenza-like illnesses (ILI) from January 2006 through December 2010 and collected nasopharyngeal specimens from patients for virological confirmation. Times series analysis was used to investigate relationship between ILI and climatic parameters (rainfall and specific humidity). Results Based on 1533 viruses identified during the study period, we observed marked seasonality in the circulation of influenza virus in the pre-pandemic period, followed by year-round activity in the post-pandemic period, with a peak in the rainy season. ILI incidence showed seasonal autoregressive variation based on ARIMA analysis. Multivariate dynamic regression revealed that a 1 mm increase of rainfall resulted in an increase of 0.33% in ILI incidence one week later, adjusting for specific humidity (SH). Conversely, an increase of 1 g/kg of SH resulted in a decrease of 11% in ILI incidence 3 weeks later, adjusting for rainfall. Conclusions Increased rainfall and low levels of specific humidity favour influenza transmission in French Guiana.
ISSN:0163-4453
1532-2742
DOI:10.1016/j.jinf.2013.03.018