Explaining Seasonal Fluctuations of Measles in Niger Using Nighttime Lights Imagery

Measles epidemics in West Africa cause a significant proportion of vaccine-preventable childhood mortality. Epidemics are strongly seasonal, but the drivers of these fluctuations are poorly understood, which limits the predictability of outbreaks and the dynamic response to immunization. We show tha...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2011-12, Vol.334 (6061), p.1424-1427
Main Authors: Bharti, N., Tatem, A. J., Ferrari, M. J., Grais, R. F., Djibo, A., Grenfell, B. T.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis. Health state
Attrition (Research Studies)
Biological and medical sciences
Children
Cities
Communes
Crisis Management
Density
Disease transmission
Economic fluctuations
Emigration and Immigration
Epidemics
Epidemiologic Methods
Epidemiology
General aspects
Humans
Light
Measles
Measles - epidemiology
Measles - transmission
Medical sciences
Modeling
Niger - epidemiology
Population Density
Population estimates
Public Health
Public health. Hygiene
Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
Remote Sensing Technology
Seasons
Spacecraft
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Measles epidemics in West Africa cause a significant proportion of vaccine-preventable childhood mortality. Epidemics are strongly seasonal, but the drivers of these fluctuations are poorly understood, which limits the predictability of outbreaks and the dynamic response to immunization. We show that measles seasonality can be explained by spatiotemporal changes in population density, which we measure by quantifying anthropogenic light from satellite imagery. We find that measles transmission and population density are highly correlated for three cities in Niger. With dynamic epidemic models, we demonstrate that measures of population density are essential for predicting epidemic progression at the city level and improving intervention strategies. In addition to epidemiological applications, the ability to measure fine-scale changes in population density has implications for public health, crisis management, and economic development.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.1210554