Sweden SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking and snus prevalence and attributable deaths

This study examines the effect of past tobacco control policies and projects the effect of future policies on smoking and snus use prevalence and associated premature mortality in Sweden. The established SimSmoke model was adapted with population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data from S...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:European journal of public health 2014-06, Vol.24 (3), p.451-458
Main Authors: Near, Aimee M, Blackman, Kenneth, Currie, Laura M, Levy, David T
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Benefits
Children & youth
Cross-Sectional Studies
Female
Health Policy
Humans
Labels
Male
Marketing
Mass media
Middle Aged
Models, Statistical
Mortality
Population policy
Smoking
Smoking - epidemiology
Smoking cessation
Surveillance
Sweden
Sweden - epidemiology
Tobacco
Tobacco Control
Tobacco, Smokeless - utilization
Young Adult
Youth
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Summary:This study examines the effect of past tobacco control policies and projects the effect of future policies on smoking and snus use prevalence and associated premature mortality in Sweden. The established SimSmoke model was adapted with population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data from Sweden. SimSmoke evaluates the effect of taxes, smoke-free air, mass media, marketing bans, warning labels, cessation treatment and youth access policies on smoking and snus prevalence and the number of deaths attributable to smoking and snus use by gender from 2010 to 2040. Sweden SimSmoke estimates that significant inroads to reducing smoking and snus prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through tax increases, especially when combined with other policies. Smoking prevalence can be decreased by as much as 26% in the first few years, reaching a 37% reduction within 30 years. Without effective tobacco control policies, almost 54 500 lives will be lost in Sweden due to tobacco use by the year 2040. Besides presenting the benefits of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy, the model identifies gaps in surveillance and evaluation that can help better focus tobacco control policy in Sweden.
ISSN:1101-1262
1464-360X
DOI:10.1093/eurpub/ckt178