Impact of Different Policies on Unhealthy Dietary Behaviors in an Urban Adult Population: An Agent-Based Simulation Model

• Published in: American journal of public health (1971) 2014-07, Vol.104 (7), p.1217-1222
• Main Authors: DONGLAN ZHANG, GIABBANELLI, Philippe J, ARAH, Onyebuchi A, ZIMMERMAN, Frederick J
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adaptation; Adolescent; Adult; Advertising; Age Factors; Behavior; Biological and medical sciences; California; Computer Simulation; Consumption; Costs and Cost Analysis; Decision Making; Diet; Diseases of the digestive system; Eating behavior; Education; Educational Status; Feeding Behavior; Female; Food; Food prices; Fruits; Gender; General aspects; Health care; Health Policy; Humans; Male; Marketing; Medical sciences; Middle Aged; Miscellaneous; Models, Theoretical; Norms; Nutrition research; Obesity/Overweight/Underweight; Policy; Population; Prevention; Probability; Public health; Public health. Hygiene; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine; Radiotherapy. Instrumental treatment. Physiotherapy. Reeducation. Rehabilitation, orthophony, crenotherapy. Diet therapy and various other treatments (general aspects); Sex Factors; Simulation; Social networks; Social norms; Studies; Theory; Urban Population; Using Systems Science in Obesity Research; Young Adult
• ISSN: 0090-0036; 1541-0048
• DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2014.301934

Unhealthy eating is a complex-system problem. We used agent-based modeling to examine the effects of different policies on unhealthy eating behaviors. We developed an agent-based simulation model to represent a synthetic population of adults in Pasadena, CA, and how they make dietary decisions. Data from the 2007 Food Attitudes and Behaviors Survey and other empirical studies were used to calibrate the parameters of the model. Simulations were performed to contrast the potential effects of various policies on the evolution of dietary decisions. Our model showed that a 20% increase in taxes on fast foods would lower the probability of fast-food consumption by 3 percentage points, whereas improving the visibility of positive social norms by 10%, either through community-based or mass-media campaigns, could improve the consumption of fruits and vegetables by 7 percentage points and lower fast-food consumption by 6 percentage points. Zoning policies had no significant impact. Interventions emphasizing healthy eating norms may be more effective than directly targeting food prices or regulating local food outlets. Agent-based modeling may be a useful tool for testing the population-level effects of various policies within complex systems.