The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth

We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into childrearing, and crowding of fixed natural...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Population and development review 2013-03, Vol.39 (1), p.97-130
Main Authors: Ashraf, Quamrul H., Weil, David N., Wilde, Joshua
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Capital accumulation
Child rearing
Children
Crowding
Economic Development
Economic growth
Economic growth models
Economic models
Fertility
Human capital
Modeling
Natural Resources
Nigeria
Parents
Per capita output
Population
Population growth
Population growth rate
Reviews
Simulation
Simulations
Socioeconomics
United Nations
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Summary:We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into childrearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection in Nigeria. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years. We conclude with a discussion of the quantitative significance of these results.
ISSN:0098-7921
1728-4457
DOI:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00575.x