Age, period, and cohort effects in motor vehicle mortality in the United States, 1980–2010: The role of sex, alcohol involvement, and position in vehicle

• Published in: Journal of safety research 2015-02, Vol.52, p.47-57
• Main Authors: Macinko, James, Silver, Diana, Bae, Jin Yung
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accidents, Traffic - mortality; Accidents, Traffic - statistics & numerical data; Adolescent; Adult; Age; Age Factors; Aged; Age–period–cohort analysis; Alcohol; Alcohol use; Alcoholic Intoxication - epidemiology; Cohort Effect; Drunk driving; Estimating techniques; Fatalities; Female; Gender; Gender differences; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Motor vehicle crashes; Public policy; Sex Factors; Traffic accidents & safety; United States; Young Adult
• ISSN: 0022-4375; 1879-1247
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2014.12.003

Although substantive declines in motor vehicle fatalities in 1980–2010 have been observed, declines by position in the vehicle and alcohol involvement have not been well elucidated. Analyses of FARS data use the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) to produce estimates of all age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously by position in the car and by alcohol involvement. Declines in MVC deaths by position in the car vary for men and women by age and cohort over time. Cohorts born before 1970 had higher risks than those born later. Analyses using proxy indicators of alcohol involvement found the highest risks for those aged 16–24. By period, these risks declined more rapidly than non- alcohol related traffic fatalities. Changes in risk patterns are consistent with evidence regarding the contributions of new technologies and public policy efforts to reduce fatalities, but gains have not been shared evenly by sex or position in the car. Greater attention is needed in reducing deaths among older drivers and pedestrians. Gender differences should be addressed in prevention efforts aimed at reducing MVCs due to alcohol involvement. •Motor vehicle mortality risk profiles differ by sex, position in the vehicle, and by indicators for alcohol involvement.•Age-specific risks were highest among young drivers and occupants regardless of sex.•Risks were significantly higher for drivers, occupants, and pedestrians aged 65 and over, except where alcohol was involved.•Period effects show sustained risk reductions since the mid-1990s, but these effects were less pronounced among drivers.•More recent (post-1980) cohorts exhibited lower risks for all groups except occupant/passengers.