Impact of climate and mosquito vector abundance on sylvatic arbovirus circulation dynamics in Senegal

Sylvatic arboviruses have been isolated in Senegal over the last 50 years. The ecological drivers of the pattern and frequency of virus infection in these species are largely unknown. We used time series analysis and Bayesian hierarchical count modeling on a long-term arbovirus dataset to test assoc...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 2015-01, Vol.92 (1), p.88-97
Main Authors: Althouse, Benjamin M, Hanley, Kathryn A, Diallo, Mawlouth, Sall, Amadou A, Ba, Yamar, Faye, Ousmane, Diallo, Diawo, Watts, Douglas M, Weaver, Scott C, Cummings, Derek A T
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Arbovirus
Arbovirus Infections - transmission
Arbovirus Infections - virology
Chikungunya virus
Climate
Culicidae
Culicidae - virology
Dengue virus
Insect Vectors
Rain
Senegal - epidemiology
Yellow fever virus
Zika virus
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Summary:Sylvatic arboviruses have been isolated in Senegal over the last 50 years. The ecological drivers of the pattern and frequency of virus infection in these species are largely unknown. We used time series analysis and Bayesian hierarchical count modeling on a long-term arbovirus dataset to test associations between mosquito abundance, weather variables, and the frequency of isolation of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. We found little correlation between mosquito abundance and viral isolations. Rainfall was a negative predictor of dengue virus (DENV) isolation but a positive predictor of Zika virus isolation. Temperature was a positive predictor of yellow fever virus (YFV) isolations but a negative predictor of DENV isolations. We found slight interference between viruses, with DENV negatively associated with concurrent YFV isolation and YFV negatively associated with concurrent isolation of chikungunya virus. These findings begin to characterize some of the ecological associations of sylvatic arboviruses with each other and climate and mosquito abundance.
ISSN:0002-9637
1476-1645
DOI:10.4269/ajtmh.13-0617