Simulating the dynamic effect of land use and transport policies on the health of populations

We identified the features of a land use-transportation system that optimizes the health and well-being of the population. We developed a quantitative system dynamics model to represent relationships among land use, transport, economic development, and population health. Simulation experiments were...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:American journal of public health (1971) 2015-04, Vol.105 Suppl 2 (S2), p.S223-S229
Main Authors: McClure, Roderick J, Adriazola-Steil, Claudia, Mulvihill, Christine, Fitzharris, Michael, Salmon, Paul, Bonnington, C Paul, Stevenson, Mark
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accidents, Traffic - prevention & control
Accidents, Traffic - statistics & numerical data
Cities
Computer Simulation
Economic development
Economic Development - statistics & numerical data
Fatalities
Feedback
GDP
Global Health
Gross Domestic Product
Health Policy
Health Status
Humans
Injuries
Injury/Emergency Care/Violence
Land use
Models, Theoretical
Other Environment
Population
Public health
Research and Practice
Roads & highways
Simulation
Systems Analysis
Traffic
Traffic accidents & safety
Transportation - statistics & numerical data
Vehicles
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Summary:We identified the features of a land use-transportation system that optimizes the health and well-being of the population. We developed a quantitative system dynamics model to represent relationships among land use, transport, economic development, and population health. Simulation experiments were conducted over a 10-year simulation period to compare the effect of different baseline conditions and land use-transport policies on the number of motor vehicle crash deaths and disability-adjusted life years lost. Optimal reduction in the public health burden attributable to land transport was demonstrated when transport safety risk reduction policies were combined with land use and transport polices that minimized reliance on individual motorized transport and maximized use of active transport modes. The model's results were particularly sensitive to the level of development that characterized each city at the start of the simulation period. Local, national, and international decision-makers are encouraged to address transport, land use, and health as an integrated whole to achieve the desired societal benefits of traffic safety, population health, and social equity.
ISSN:0090-0036
1541-0048
DOI:10.2105/AJPH.2014.302303