Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature communications 2015-04, Vol.6 (1), p.6869-6869, Article 6869
Main Authors: Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu, Timmermann, Axel, Luo, Jing-Jia, Mochizuki, Takashi, Kimoto, Masahide, Watanabe, Masahiro, Ishii, Masayoshi, Xie, Shang-Ping, Jin, Fei-Fei
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/106/35/823
704/106/694
Anomalies
Atmospheric circulation
Atmospheric models
Basins
Climate models
Climate prediction
Climate variability
El Nino
Flavors
Humanities and Social Sciences
Lead time
multidisciplinary
Ocean basins
Ocean currents
Predictions
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Sea level
Sea level pressure
Sea surface temperature
Southern Oscillation
Surface temperature
Synchronism
Synchronization
Tropical environments
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Summary:Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific can influence global atmospheric circulation, yet prediction of this atmospheric signal is limited to less than 1 year. Here, the authors present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability.
ISSN:2041-1723
2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/ncomms7869