Mass vaccination, immunity and coverage: modelling population protection against foot-and-mouth disease in Turkish cattle

• Published in: Scientific reports 2016-02, Vol.6 (1), p.22121-22121, Article 22121
• Main Authors: Knight-Jones, T. J. D., Gubbins, S., Bulut, A. N., Stärk, K. D. C., Pfeiffer, D. U., Sumption, K. J., Paton, D. J.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 631/250/590; 692/308/174; Animal populations; Animals; Antibodies, Viral - blood; Antibodies, Viral - immunology; Biosecurity; Cattle; Cattle Diseases - epidemiology; Cattle Diseases - prevention & control; Cattle Diseases - virology; Foot & mouth disease; Foot-and-Mouth Disease - epidemiology; Foot-and-Mouth Disease - immunology; Foot-and-Mouth Disease - prevention & control; Foot-and-Mouth Disease - virology; Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus - immunology; Herd immunity; Humanities and Social Sciences; Immunity (Disease); Mass Vaccination - methods; Models, Theoretical; multidisciplinary; Population; Population decline; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Turkey - epidemiology; Vaccines; Viral Vaccines - administration & dosage; Viral Vaccines - immunology
• ISSN: 2045-2322; 2045-2322
• DOI: 10.1038/srep22121

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Turkey is controlled using biannual mass vaccination of cattle. However, vaccine protection is undermined by population turnover and declining immunity. A dynamic model of the Turkish cattle population was created. Assuming biannual mass vaccination with a single-dose primary course, vaccine history was calculated for the simulated population (number of doses and time since last vaccination). This was used to estimate population immunity. Six months after the last round of vaccination almost half the cattle aged 1 vaccine dose in their life with the last dose given ≤6 months ago. Five months after the last round of vaccination two-thirds of cattle would have low antibody titres (