The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch

In this article, we discuss a study by Masters et al. (2014), published in Demography. Masters and associates estimated age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on U.S. mortality rates between 1959 and 2009 using the intrinsic estimator (IE). We first argue that before applying the IE, a grounded theor...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Demography 2016-08, Vol.53 (4), p.1245-1252
Main Authors: te Grotenhuis, Manfred, Pelzer, Ben, Luo, Liying, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander W.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Age Factors
Age groups
Cohort effect
COMMENT/REPLY
Continental Population Groups
Data Interpretation, Statistical
Demography
Demography - methods
Estimates
Estimating techniques
Estimation bias
Estimators
Generalized linear models
Geography
Humans
Internet resources
Mathematical minima
Medicine/Public Health
Models, Theoretical
Mortality
Mortality - ethnology
Mortality - trends
Mortality rates
Parameterization
Population Economics
Research methodology
Simulation
Simulations
Social Sciences
Sociology
Statistical variance
Studies
Trends
United States
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Summary:In this article, we discuss a study by Masters et al. (2014), published in Demography. Masters and associates estimated age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on U.S. mortality rates between 1959 and 2009 using the intrinsic estimator (IE). We first argue that before applying the IE, a grounded theoretical justification is needed for its fundamental constraint on minimum variance of the estimates. We next demonstrate IE's high sensitivity to the type of dummy parameterization used to obtain the estimates. Finally, we discuss challenges in the interpretation of APC models. Our comments are not restricted to the article in question but pertain generally to any research that uses the IE.
ISSN:0070-3370
1533-7790
DOI:10.1007/s13524-016-0476-8