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Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse
With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio‐hydrological modeling...
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Published in: | Water resources research 2016-08, Vol.52 (8), p.6222-6242 |
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description | With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio‐hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600–830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger.
Key Points
We present a coupled hydrology‐demography model that simulates plausible feedbacks for the Ancient Maya
Reservoirs allowed the Maya people to sustain longer economic growth and reach higher population levels
However, reliance on reservoirs resulted in bigger population drops when major droughts occurred |
doi_str_mv | 10.1002/2015WR018298 |
format | article |
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Key Points
We present a coupled hydrology‐demography model that simulates plausible feedbacks for the Ancient Maya
Reservoirs allowed the Maya people to sustain longer economic growth and reach higher population levels
However, reliance on reservoirs resulted in bigger population drops when major droughts occurred</description><identifier>ISSN: 0043-1397</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1944-7973</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/2015WR018298</identifier><identifier>PMID: 27840455</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: John Wiley & Sons, Inc</publisher><subject>Agrarian society ; Ancient Maya ; Climate ; Climate change ; Collapse ; Computer simulation ; Construction ; Crops ; Drought ; Drought periods ; Drying ; Environment models ; Environmental impact ; Human Impact ; Human Impacts ; Hydrologic drought ; Hydrologic models ; Hydrologic processes ; Hydrological ; Hydrology ; Interactions ; Modelling ; Natural Hazards ; Population ; Population density ; Population dynamics ; Population growth ; Pressing ; Rain ; Rainfall ; Reservoir construction ; Reservoirs ; Security ; Sensitivity ; socio‐hydrology ; Vulnerability ; Water ; Water security ; Water stress</subject><ispartof>Water resources research, 2016-08, Vol.52 (8), p.6222-6242</ispartof><rights>2016. The Authors.</rights><rights>2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a5123-6a0a6d400ddbd28321d99085a72bcd993006d234f2cb277580e2104dca828b4a3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a5123-6a0a6d400ddbd28321d99085a72bcd993006d234f2cb277580e2104dca828b4a3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2F2015WR018298$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2F2015WR018298$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,777,781,882,11495,27905,27906,46449,46873</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27840455$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Kuil, Linda</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Carr, Gemma</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Viglione, Alberto</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Prskawetz, Alexia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Blöschl, Günter</creatorcontrib><title>Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse</title><title>Water resources research</title><addtitle>Water Resour Res</addtitle><description>With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio‐hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600–830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger.
Key Points
We present a coupled hydrology‐demography model that simulates plausible feedbacks for the Ancient Maya
Reservoirs allowed the Maya people to sustain longer economic growth and reach higher population levels
However, reliance on reservoirs resulted in bigger population drops when major droughts occurred</description><subject>Agrarian society</subject><subject>Ancient Maya</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Collapse</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Construction</subject><subject>Crops</subject><subject>Drought</subject><subject>Drought periods</subject><subject>Drying</subject><subject>Environment models</subject><subject>Environmental impact</subject><subject>Human Impact</subject><subject>Human Impacts</subject><subject>Hydrologic drought</subject><subject>Hydrologic models</subject><subject>Hydrologic processes</subject><subject>Hydrological</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Interactions</subject><subject>Modelling</subject><subject>Natural Hazards</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Population density</subject><subject>Population dynamics</subject><subject>Population growth</subject><subject>Pressing</subject><subject>Rain</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Reservoir construction</subject><subject>Reservoirs</subject><subject>Security</subject><subject>Sensitivity</subject><subject>socio‐hydrology</subject><subject>Vulnerability</subject><subject>Water</subject><subject>Water security</subject><subject>Water stress</subject><issn>0043-1397</issn><issn>1944-7973</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2016</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>24P</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kc1qHDEQhIWJsTe2bzmHgVxyyCStv5GUgyEszg84GBYbH4VG0u7KzI4m0kzC-pRHyDPmSaKwtnFy8KkL-qPo6kLoBYa3GIC8I4D59QKwJEruoRlWjNVCCfoMzQAYrTFV4hA9z_kGADPeiAN0SIRkwDifoat57K0fxsl04Tb0qypHG-Lvn7_WW5diF1fBmq4qclqtx2pI0fqcfX5fXa59ZU32VVxWY9FfzdZUNnadGbI_RvtL02V_cjeP0NXHs8v55_r84tOX-Yfz2nBMaN0YMI1jAM61jkhKsFMKJDeCtLZICtA4QtmS2JYIwSV4goE5aySRLTP0CJ3ufIep3XhnfT8m0-khhY1JWx1N0P9u-rDWq_hdc1C4YawYvL4zSPHb5POoNyFbX1L0Pk5Zl68KBQ3luKCv_kNv4pT6Ek_jcjTDikgo1JsdZVPMOfnlwzEY9N--9OO-Cv7ycYAH-L6gAtAd8CN0fvukmb5ezBeEYEXpHyZUoEc</recordid><startdate>201608</startdate><enddate>201608</enddate><creator>Kuil, Linda</creator><creator>Carr, Gemma</creator><creator>Viglione, Alberto</creator><creator>Prskawetz, Alexia</creator><creator>Blöschl, Günter</creator><general>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</general><general>John Wiley and Sons Inc</general><scope>24P</scope><scope>WIN</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QH</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7T7</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>5PM</scope></search><sort><creationdate>201608</creationdate><title>Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse</title><author>Kuil, Linda ; Carr, Gemma ; Viglione, Alberto ; Prskawetz, Alexia ; Blöschl, Günter</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a5123-6a0a6d400ddbd28321d99085a72bcd993006d234f2cb277580e2104dca828b4a3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2016</creationdate><topic>Agrarian society</topic><topic>Ancient Maya</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Collapse</topic><topic>Computer simulation</topic><topic>Construction</topic><topic>Crops</topic><topic>Drought</topic><topic>Drought periods</topic><topic>Drying</topic><topic>Environment models</topic><topic>Environmental impact</topic><topic>Human Impact</topic><topic>Human Impacts</topic><topic>Hydrologic drought</topic><topic>Hydrologic models</topic><topic>Hydrologic processes</topic><topic>Hydrological</topic><topic>Hydrology</topic><topic>Interactions</topic><topic>Modelling</topic><topic>Natural Hazards</topic><topic>Population</topic><topic>Population density</topic><topic>Population dynamics</topic><topic>Population growth</topic><topic>Pressing</topic><topic>Rain</topic><topic>Rainfall</topic><topic>Reservoir construction</topic><topic>Reservoirs</topic><topic>Security</topic><topic>Sensitivity</topic><topic>socio‐hydrology</topic><topic>Vulnerability</topic><topic>Water</topic><topic>Water security</topic><topic>Water stress</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Kuil, Linda</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Carr, Gemma</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Viglione, Alberto</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Prskawetz, Alexia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Blöschl, Günter</creatorcontrib><collection>Wiley Online Library Open Access</collection><collection>Wiley Online Library Free Content</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Aqualine</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Industrial and Applied Microbiology Abstracts (Microbiology A)</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Water resources research</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Kuil, Linda</au><au>Carr, Gemma</au><au>Viglione, Alberto</au><au>Prskawetz, Alexia</au><au>Blöschl, Günter</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse</atitle><jtitle>Water resources research</jtitle><addtitle>Water Resour Res</addtitle><date>2016-08</date><risdate>2016</risdate><volume>52</volume><issue>8</issue><spage>6222</spage><epage>6242</epage><pages>6222-6242</pages><issn>0043-1397</issn><eissn>1944-7973</eissn><abstract>With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio‐hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600–830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger.
Key Points
We present a coupled hydrology‐demography model that simulates plausible feedbacks for the Ancient Maya
Reservoirs allowed the Maya people to sustain longer economic growth and reach higher population levels
However, reliance on reservoirs resulted in bigger population drops when major droughts occurred</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</pub><pmid>27840455</pmid><doi>10.1002/2015WR018298</doi><tpages>21</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | Agrarian society Ancient Maya Climate Climate change Collapse Computer simulation Construction Crops Drought Drought periods Drying Environment models Environmental impact Human Impact Human Impacts Hydrologic drought Hydrologic models Hydrologic processes Hydrological Hydrology Interactions Modelling Natural Hazards Population Population density Population dynamics Population growth Pressing Rain Rainfall Reservoir construction Reservoirs Security Sensitivity socio‐hydrology Vulnerability Water Water security Water stress |
title | Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse |
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