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Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse

With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio‐hydrological modeling...

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Published in:Water resources research 2016-08, Vol.52 (8), p.6222-6242
Main Authors: Kuil, Linda, Carr, Gemma, Viglione, Alberto, Prskawetz, Alexia, Blöschl, Günter
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Language:English
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description With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio‐hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600–830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger. Key Points We present a coupled hydrology‐demography model that simulates plausible feedbacks for the Ancient Maya Reservoirs allowed the Maya people to sustain longer economic growth and reach higher population levels However, reliance on reservoirs resulted in bigger population drops when major droughts occurred
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source Wiley Online Library AGU 2017
subjects Agrarian society
Ancient Maya
Climate
Climate change
Collapse
Computer simulation
Construction
Crops
Drought
Drought periods
Drying
Environment models
Environmental impact
Human Impact
Human Impacts
Hydrologic drought
Hydrologic models
Hydrologic processes
Hydrological
Hydrology
Interactions
Modelling
Natural Hazards
Population
Population density
Population dynamics
Population growth
Pressing
Rain
Rainfall
Reservoir construction
Reservoirs
Security
Sensitivity
socio‐hydrology
Vulnerability
Water
Water security
Water stress
title Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse
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