Generating an agricultural risk map based on limited ecological information: A case study using "Sicyos angulatus"

In this study, we propose a method for estimating the risk of agricultural damage caused by an invasive species when species-specific information is lacking. We defined the "risk" as the product of the invasion probability and the area of potentially damaged crop for production. As a case...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Ambio 2016-12, Vol.45 (8), p.895-903
Main Authors: Osawa, Takeshi, Okawa, Shigenori, Kurokawa, Shunji, Ando, Shinichiro
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural land
Agriculture
Agriculture - economics
Agriculture - methods
Agriculture - trends
Atmospheric Sciences
Case studies
Computer Simulation
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Creeks & streams
Crop damage
Crops
Crops, Agricultural - growth & development
Cucurbitaceae - growth & development
Earth and Environmental Science
Ecology
Environment
Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology
Environmental Management
Environmental Monitoring - methods
Freshwater
Geographic Mapping
Introduced Species
Invasive plants
Invasive species
Japan
Models, Theoretical
Nonnative species
Physical Geography
Plant Weeds - growth & development
Risk
Risk management
Sicyos angulatus
Studies
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Summary:In this study, we propose a method for estimating the risk of agricultural damage caused by an invasive species when species-specific information is lacking. We defined the "risk" as the product of the invasion probability and the area of potentially damaged crop for production. As a case study, we estimated the risk imposed by an invasive weed, Sicyos angulatus, based on simple cellular simulations and governmental data on the area of crop that could potentially be damaged in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. Simulation results revealed that the current distribution range was sufficiently accurate for practical purposes. Using these results and records of crop areas, we present risk maps for S. angulatus in agricultural fields. Managers will be able to use these maps to rapidly establish a management plan with minimal cost. Our approach will be valuable for establishing a management plan before or during the early stages of invasion.
ISSN:0044-7447
1654-7209
DOI:10.1007/s13280-016-0782-9