Assessment of scoring systems for acute-on-chronic liver failure at predicting short-term mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis

• Published in: World journal of gastroenterology : WJG 2016-11, Vol.22 (41), p.9205-9213
• Main Authors: Kim, Hee Yeon, Kim, Chang Wook, Kim, Tae Yeob, Song, Do Seon, Sinn, Dong Hyun, Yoon, Eileen L, Jung, Young Kul, Suk, Ki Tae, Lee, Sang Soo, Lee, Chang Hyeong, Kim, Tae Hun, Kim, Jeong Han, Yim, Hyung Joon, Kim, Sung Eun, Baik, Soon Koo, Lee, Byung Seok, Jang, Jae Young, Kim, Young Seok, Kim, Sang Gyune, Yang, Jin Mo, Sohn, Joo Hyun, Lee, Heon Ju, Park, Seung Ha, Choi, Eun Hee, Kim, Dong Joon
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure - diagnosis; Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure - etiology; Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure - mortality; Adult; Area Under Curve; Decision Support Techniques; Disease Progression; Female; Health Status Indicators; Hepatitis, Alcoholic - complications; Hepatitis, Alcoholic - diagnosis; Hepatitis, Alcoholic - mortality; Humans; Kaplan-Meier Estimate; Male; Middle Aged; Organ Dysfunction Scores; Predictive Value of Tests; Prognosis; Reproducibility of Results; Republic of Korea; Retrospective Studies; Retrospective Study; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; ROC Curve; Time Factors
• ISSN: 1007-9327; 2219-2840
• DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v22.i41.9205

AIM To assess the performance of proposed scores specific for acute-on-chronic liver failure in predicting shortterm mortality among patients with alcoholic hepatitis.METHODS We retrospectively collected data from 264 patients with clinically diagnosed alcoholic hepatitis from January to December 2013 at 21 academic hospitals in Korea. The performance for predicting short-term mortality was calculated for Chronic Liver FailureSequential Organ Failure Assessment(CLIF-SOFA), CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score(CLIF-C OFs), Maddrey’sdiscriminant function(DF), age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio and creatinine score(ABIC), Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score(GAHS), model for end-stage liver disease(MELD), and MELD-Na.RESULTS Of 264 patients, 32(12%) patients died within 28 d. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C OFs, DF, ABIC, GAHS, MELD, and MELD-Na was 0.86(0.81-0.90), 0.89(0.84-0.92), 0.79(0.74-0.84), 0.78(0.72-0.83), 0.81(0.76-0.86), 0.83(0.78-0.88), and 0.83(0.78-0.88), respectively, for 28-d mortality. The performance of CLIF-SOFA had no statistically significant differences for 28-d mortality. The performance of CLIF-C OFs was superior to that of DF, ABIC, and GAHS, while comparable to that of MELD and MELD-Na in predicting 28-d mortality. A CLIF-SOFA score of 8 had 78.1% sensitivity and 79.7% specificity, and CLIF-C OFs of 10 had 68.8% sensitivity and 91.4% specificity for predicting 28-d mortality.CONCLUSION CLIF-SOFA and CLIF-C OF scores performed well, with comparable predictive ability for short-term mortality compared to the commonly used scoring systems in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.