A comparison of theoretical and statistically derived indices for predicting cognitive decline

Abstract Introduction Both theoretical and statistically derived approaches have been used in research settings for predicting cognitive decline. Methods Fifty-eight cognitively normal (NC) and 71 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects completed a comprehensive cognitive battery for up to 5 years...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Alzheimer's & dementia : diagnosis, assessment & disease monitoring assessment & disease monitoring, 2017, Vol.6 (1), p.171-181
Main Authors: Wilhalme, Holly, Goukasian, Naira, De Leon, Fransia, He, Angie, Hwang, Kristy S, Woo, Ellen, Elashoff, David, Zhou, Yan, Ringman, John M, Apostolova, Liana G
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Alzheimer's disease
Cognitive & Behavioral Assessment
Cognitive decline
Conversion
Executive decline
Factor analysis
MCI
Memory decline
Mild cognitive impairment
Neurology
Neuropsychological test
Other
Prognosis
Progression
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Summary:Abstract Introduction Both theoretical and statistically derived approaches have been used in research settings for predicting cognitive decline. Methods Fifty-eight cognitively normal (NC) and 71 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects completed a comprehensive cognitive battery for up to 5 years of follow-up. Composite indices of cognitive function were derived using a classic theoretical approach and exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Cognitive variables comprising each factor were averaged to form the EFA composite indices. Logistic regression was used to investigate whether these cognitive composites can reliably predict cognitive outcomes. Results Neither method predicted decline in NC. The theoretical memory, executive, attention, and language composites and the EFA-derived “attention/executive” and “verbal memory” composites were significant predictors of decline in MCI. The best models achieved an area under the curve of 0.94 in MCI. Conclusions The theoretical and the statistically derived cognitive composite approaches are useful in predicting decline in MCI but not in NC.
ISSN:2352-8729
2352-8729
DOI:10.1016/j.dadm.2016.10.002