Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change

Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2017-03, Vol.114 (11), p.2848-2853
Main Authors: Jones, Gerrad D., Droz, Boris, Greve, Peter, Gottschalk, Pia, Poffet, Deyan, McGrath, Steve P., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Smith, Pete, Winkel, Lenny H. E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate Change
Environmental impact
Environmental Monitoring
Humans
Physical chemistry
Physical Sciences
Prognosis
Risk Factors
Selenium
Selenium - chemistry
Selenium - metabolism
Soil - chemistry
Soil fertility
Soil Pollutants - chemistry
Soil Pollutants - isolation & purification
Trace elements
Trace Elements - chemistry
Trace Elements - metabolism
Vitamin deficiency
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Summary:Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980–1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans.Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate–soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080–2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate–soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retentionmechanismswill be similarly affected by climate change.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1611576114