Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling....

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2017-08, Vol.114 (34), p.8945-8950
Main Authors: Güneralp, Burak, Zhou, Yuyu, Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana, Gupta, Mukesh, Yu, Sha, Patel, Pralit L., Fragkias, Michail, Li, Xiaoma, Seto, Karen C.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Buildings
cities
Climate change
Cooling
Energy
Energy conservation
Energy consumption
Energy efficiency
ENGINEERING
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Heating
mitigation
Physical Sciences
Population density
Residential density
Social Sciences
SPECIAL FEATURE
Studies
Sustainability
Urban areas
Urban development
urban form
Urbanization
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7–40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1606035114