Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology

1. Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making. 2. Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives. 3. We integrate res...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of applied ecology 2017-12, Vol.54 (6), p.2063-2068
Main Authors: Milner-Gulland, E. J., Shea, Katriona
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
adaptive management
COMMENTARY
conservation
Decision making
Decision theory
Ecological effects
Ecologists
Ecology
epidemiology
harvesting
Management
management strategy evaluation
modelling
pest management
structured decision‐making
Traps
Uncertainty
value of information
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Summary:1. Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making. 2. Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives. 3. We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management. 4. Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty. 5. Synthesis and applications. Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.
ISSN:0021-8901
1365-2664
DOI:10.1111/1365-2664.12887