Real-Time Assessment of Health-Care Requirements During the Zika Virus Epidemic in Martinique

The spread of Zika virus in the Americas has been associated with a surge in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) cases. Given the severity of GBS, territories affected by Zika virus need to plan health-care resources to manage GBS patients. To inform such planning in Martinique, we analyzed Zika virus sur...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:American journal of epidemiology 2017-11, Vol.186 (10), p.1194-1203
Main Authors: Andronico, Alessio, Dorléans, Frédérique, Fergé, Jean-Louis, Salje, Henrik, Ghawché, Frédéric, Signate, Aissatou, Daudens-Vaysse, Elise, Baudouin, Laure, Dub, Timothée, Aubry, Maite, Cao-Lormeau, Van-Mai, Ledrans, Martine, Noel, Harold, Mallet, Henri-Pierre, Fontanet, Arnaud, Cabié, André, Cauchemez, Simon
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Disease Outbreaks
Editor's Choice
Guillain-Barre Syndrome - epidemiology
Guillain-Barre Syndrome - etiology
Health Planning - methods
Health Planning - organization & administration
Humans
Life Sciences
Martinique - epidemiology
Needs Assessment
Polynesia - epidemiology
Practice of Epidemiology
Santé publique et épidémiologie
Zika Virus Infection - complications
Zika Virus Infection - epidemiology
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Summary:The spread of Zika virus in the Americas has been associated with a surge in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) cases. Given the severity of GBS, territories affected by Zika virus need to plan health-care resources to manage GBS patients. To inform such planning in Martinique, we analyzed Zika virus surveillance and GBS data from Martinique in real time with a modeling framework that captured dynamics of the Zika virus epidemic, the risk of GBS in Zika virus-infected persons, and the clinical management of GBS cases. We compared our estimates with those from the 2013-2014 Zika virus epidemic in French Polynesia. We were able to predict just a few weeks into the epidemic that, due to lower transmission potential and lower probability of developing GBS following infection in Martinique, the total number of GBS cases in Martinique would be substantially lower than suggested by simple extrapolations from French Polynesia. We correctly predicted that 8 intensive-care beds and 7 ventilators would be sufficient to treat GBS cases. This study showcased the contribution of modeling to inform local health-care planning during an outbreak. Timely studies that estimate the proportion of infected persons that seek care are needed to improve the predictive power of such approaches.
ISSN:0002-9262
1476-6256
DOI:10.1093/aje/kwx008