Dew point temperature affects ascospore release of allergenic genus Leptosphaeria

• Published in: International journal of biometeorology 2018-06, Vol.62 (6), p.979-990
• Main Authors: Sadyś, Magdalena, Kaczmarek, Joanna, Grinn-Gofron, Agnieszka, Rodinkova, Victoria, Prikhodko, Alex, Bilous, Elena, Strzelczak, Agnieszka, Herbert, Robert J., Jedryczka, Malgorzata
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air sampling; Animal Physiology; Artificial neural networks; Asthma; Biological and Medical Physics; Biophysics; Climate models; Dew; Dew point; Earth and Environmental Science; Environment; Environmental Health; Epidemiology; Fungi; Land cover; Leptosphaeria; Mathematical models; Meteorological data; Meteorology; Microclimate; Neural networks; Original Paper; Plant Physiology; Regression analysis; Statistical analysis; Statistical analysis of data; Temperate climates; Urban areas
• ISSN: 0020-7128; 1432-1254
• DOI: 10.1007/s00484-018-1500-z

The genus Leptosphaeria contains numerous fungi that cause the symptoms of asthma and also parasitize wild and crop plants. In search of a robust and universal forecast model, the ascospore concentration in air was measured and weather data recorded from 1 March to 31 October between 2006 and 2012. The experiment was conducted in three European countries of the temperate climate, i.e., Ukraine, Poland, and the UK. Out of over 150 forecast models produced using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multivariate regression trees (MRTs), we selected the best model for each site, as well as for joint two-site combinations. The performance of all computed models was tested against records from 1 year which had not been used for model construction. The statistical analysis of the fungal spore data was supported by a comprehensive study of both climate and land cover within a 30-km radius from the air sampler location. High-performance forecasting models were obtained for individual sites, showing that the local micro-climate plays a decisive role in biology of the fungi. Based on the previous epidemiological studies, we hypothesized that dew point temperature (DPT) would be a critical factor in the models. The impact of DPT was confirmed only by one of the final best neural models, but the MRT analyses, similarly to the Spearman’s rank test, indicated the importance of DPT in all but one of the studied cases and in half of them ranked it as a fundamental factor. This work applies artificial neural modeling to predict the Leptosphaeria airborne spore concentration in urban areas for the first time.