PREDICTIVE MODEL OF DELIRIUM IN INSTITUTIONALIZED PATIENTS

• Published in: Innovation in aging 2017-07, Vol.1 (suppl_1), p.1114-1114
• Main Authors: Baixauli-Alacreu, S., Pérez-Ros, P., Martínez-Arnau, F.M., García-Gollarte, F., Tarazona-Santabalbina, F.J.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Abstracts
• ISSN: 2399-5300; 2399-5300
• DOI: 10.1093/geroni/igx004.4078

Introduction: Between 22 and 70% of residents in long term facilities experience Delirium. Objectives: To establish a predictive model of delirium in an institutionalized elderly people. Methods: A case-control study was designed with a 12 months follow-up period. The recruitment period was comprised between February and April 2015. The cases were subjects with at least one Delirium episode during the follow-up period, control were subjects without delirium in the same period. Dependent variable was delirium episodes detected with CAM scale. Independent and adjusting variables were sociodemographic, clinical and functional. Results: 193 cases and 123 controls were identified. Delirium incidence was 60.5%. Presence of infections (excluding those affecting to urinary tract) was the variable most predictive (OR = 7.1, 95% CI 3.3 to 15.0; p < 0.001). In addition were also Delirium predictors, previous dementia diagnosis (OR = 3.1, 95% CI 1.8 to 5.5; p < 0.001), anticholinergic activity prescription drug (OR = 3.0, 95% CI 1.3 to 6.6; p = 0.007), depression diagnosis (OR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.0 to 3.6; p = 0.039) and urinary incontinence (OR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.0 to 3.0; p = 0.065). The predictive model had a sensitivity of 61.5% and a specificity of 78.3% with a R 2 of Nagelkerke of 0.341. The area under the curve was 0.794 (95 % CI: 0745-0844; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Delirium can be predicted in elderly institucionalized patients. Identify institutionalized patients at high risk of developing delirium could allow implement measures to prevent delirium in nursing homes.