SOURCE: A Registry-Based Prediction Model for Overall Survival in Patients with Metastatic Oesophageal or Gastric Cancer

Prediction models are only sparsely available for metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Because treatment in this setting is often preference-based, decision-making with the aid of a prediction model is wanted. The aim of this study is to construct a prediction model, called SOURCE, for the overall su...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Cancers 2019-02, Vol.11 (2), p.187
Main Authors: van den Boorn, Héctor G, Abu-Hanna, Ameen, Ter Veer, Emil, van Kleef, Jessy Joy, Lordick, Florian, Stahl, Michael, Ajani, Jaffer A, Guimbaud, Rosine, Park, Se Hoon, Dutton, Susan J, Bang, Yung-Jue, Boku, Narikazu, Mohammad, Nadia Haj, Sprangers, Mirjam A G, Verhoeven, Rob H A, Zwinderman, Aeilko H, van Oijen, Martijn G H, van Laarhoven, Hanneke W M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Cancer therapies
Chemotherapy
Clinical medicine
Datasets
Decision making
Esophageal cancer
Esophagus
Gastric cancer
Medical prognosis
Metastases
Metastasis
Patients
Prediction models
Survival
Tumors
Variables
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Summary:Prediction models are only sparsely available for metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Because treatment in this setting is often preference-based, decision-making with the aid of a prediction model is wanted. The aim of this study is to construct a prediction model, called SOURCE, for the overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Data from patients with metastatic oesophageal ( = 8010) or gastric ( = 4763) cancer diagnosed during 2005⁻2015 were retrieved from the nationwide Netherlands cancer registry. A multivariate Cox regression model was created to predict overall survival for various treatments. Predictor selection was performed via the Akaike Information Criterion and a Delphi consensus among experts in palliative oesophagogastric cancer. Validation was performed according to a temporal internal-external scheme. The predictive quality was assessed with the concordance-index (c-index) and calibration. The model c-indices showed consistent discriminative ability during validation: 0.71 for oesophageal cancer and 0.68 for gastric cancer. The calibration showed an average slope of 1.0 and intercept of 0.0 for both tumour locations, indicating a close agreement between predicted and observed survival. With a fair c-index and good calibration, SOURCE provides a solid foundation for further investigation in clinical practice to determine its added value in shared decision making.
ISSN:2072-6694
2072-6694
DOI:10.3390/cancers11020187