Prognostic Nomogram for the Overall Survival of Patients with Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma

To establish a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM), 304 patients with newly diagnosed MM were recruited between June 1, 2010, and June 30, 2015, from the Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University, and randomly divided i...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:BioMed research international 2019-01, Vol.2019 (2019), p.1-10
Main Authors: Zhou, He-Bing, Chen, Wen-ming, Chen, Xiao-Lei, Zhang, Yue
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Analysis
Bone marrow
Calibration
Cohort Studies
Cytogenetics
Female
Gene expression
Hazards
Humans
Kaplan-Meier Estimate
L-Lactate dehydrogenase
Laboratories
Lactate dehydrogenase
Lactic acid
Male
Medical colleges
Medical prognosis
Medical research
Medicine, Experimental
Middle Aged
Multiple myeloma
Multiple Myeloma - metabolism
Multiple Myeloma - pathology
Multivariate analysis
Neoplasm Staging - methods
Nomograms
Patient outcomes
Patients
Plasma
Plasma cells
Predictions
Prognosis
Proportional Hazards Models
Regression analysis
Regression models
Risk analysis
Risk factors
Stem cells
Survival
Training
Working groups
β2 Microglobulin
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Summary:To establish a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM), 304 patients with newly diagnosed MM were recruited between June 1, 2010, and June 30, 2015, from the Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University, and randomly divided into training (n=214) and validation (n=90) cohorts. The Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to evaluate the prognostic effects of multiple clinical and laboratory parameters on survival. Significant prognostic factors were combined to build a nomogram. The discriminative ability and predictive accuracy of the nomogram were evaluated using the index of concordance (C-index) and calibration curves and compared with the five staging systems currently used for MM. Multivariate analysis of the training cohort revealed that the age at diagnosis, clonal bone marrow plasma cells, serum lactate dehydrogenase, serum β2-microglobulin, and del (17p) were independent risk factors for OS and were used to establish the nomogram. The C-index value of the nomogram for predicting OS was 0.749, which was significantly higher than the C-indices of the five most common staging systems currently used for MM. In the validation cohort, the C-index for nomogram-based predictions was 0.711 for OS, and the nomogram discrimination was better than the above mentioned five staging systems (P
ISSN:2314-6133
2314-6141
DOI:10.1155/2019/5652935