Period doubling as an indicator for ecosystem sensitivity to climate extremes

The predictions for a warmer and drier climate and for increased likelihood of climate extremes raise high concerns about the possible collapse of dryland ecosystems, and about the formation of new drylands where native species are less tolerant to water stress. Using a dryland-vegetation model for...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2019-12, Vol.9 (1), p.19577-10, Article 19577
Main Authors: Tzuk, Omer, Ujjwal, Sangeeta Rani, Fernandez-Oto, Cristian, Seifan, Merav, Meron, Ehud
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
631/158/2165
639/766/530/2795
639/766/530/2803
704/158/1144
Arid zones
Drought
Ecosystems
Humanities and Social Sciences
Indigenous species
multidisciplinary
Plant species
Prey
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Seasonal variations
Water stress
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Summary:The predictions for a warmer and drier climate and for increased likelihood of climate extremes raise high concerns about the possible collapse of dryland ecosystems, and about the formation of new drylands where native species are less tolerant to water stress. Using a dryland-vegetation model for plant species that display different tradeoffs between fast growth and tolerance to droughts, we find that ecosystems subjected to strong seasonal variability, typical for drylands, exhibit a temporal period-doubling route to chaos that results in early collapse to bare soil. We further find that fast-growing plants go through period doubling sooner and span wider chaotic ranges than stress-tolerant plants. We propose the detection of period-doubling signatures in power spectra as early indicators of ecosystem collapse that outperform existing indicators in their ability to warn against climate extremes and capture the heightened vulnerability of newly-formed drylands. The proposed indicator is expected to apply to other types of ecosystems, such as consumer–resource and predator–prey systems. We conclude by delineating the conditions ecosystems should meet in order for the proposed indicator to apply.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-019-56080-z