The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases

It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature (London) 2003-12, Vol.426 (6967), p.658-661
Main Authors: Antia, Rustom, Regoes, Roland R., Koella, Jacob C., Bergstrom, Carl T.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Biological and medical sciences
Biological Evolution
Communicable Diseases - epidemiology
Communicable Diseases - genetics
Communicable Diseases - transmission
Disease control
Distribution
Ecosystem
Emerging communicable diseases
Environmental aspects
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Evolution
General aspects
Health aspects
Host-Parasite Interactions
Human immunodeficiency virus
Human infectious diseases. Experimental studies and models
Human populations
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Infectious diseases
letter
Medical sciences
Models, Biological
Monkeypox virus
multidisciplinary
Mutation - genetics
Parasites
Pathogens
Probability
SARS coronavirus
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Stochastic Processes
United States
Zoonoses
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New pathogens are believed to emerge from animal reservoirs when ecological changes increase the pathogen's opportunities to enter the human population 1 and to generate subsequent human-to-human transmission 2 . Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, R 0 , should exceed one, where R 0 is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population 3 . However, an increase in R 0 , even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. Here we show that, as a consequence of this, the probability of pathogen evolution to R 0 > 1 and subsequent disease emergence can increase markedly.
ISSN:0028-0836
1476-4687
DOI:10.1038/nature02104