Impacts of Oil Spills on Arctic Marine Ecosystems: A Quantitative and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Perspective

Oil spills resulting from maritime accidents pose a poorly understood risk to the Arctic environment. We propose a novel probabilistic method to quantitatively assess these risks. Our method accounts for spatiotemporally varying population distributions, the spreading of oil, and seasonally varying...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental science & technology 2020-02, Vol.54 (4), p.2112-2121
Main Authors: Helle, Inari, Mäkinen, Jussi, Nevalainen, Maisa, Afenyo, Mawuli, Vanhatalo, Jarno
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accidents
Animals
Aquatic mammals
Arctic environments
Arctic Regions
Decision making
Ecosystem
Environmental assessment
Fuel oils
Ice environments
Marine ecosystems
Marine mammals
Oil spills
Petroleum Pollution
Polar bears
Polar environments
Policy Analysis
Probabilistic methods
Probabilistic risk assessment
Risk Assessment
Seals
Seals (animals)
Uncertainty
Ursidae
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Summary:Oil spills resulting from maritime accidents pose a poorly understood risk to the Arctic environment. We propose a novel probabilistic method to quantitatively assess these risks. Our method accounts for spatiotemporally varying population distributions, the spreading of oil, and seasonally varying species-specific exposure potential and sensitivity to oil. It quantifies risk with explicit uncertainty estimates, enables one to compare risks over large geographic areas, and produces information on a meaningful scale for decision-making. We demonstrate the method by assessing the short-term risks oil spills pose to polar bears, ringed seals, and walrus in the Kara Sea, the western part of the Northern Sea Route. The risks differ considerably between species, spatial locations, and seasons. Our results support current aspirations to ban heavy fuel oil in the Arctic but show that we should not underestimate the risks of lighter oils either, as these oils can pollute larger areas than heavier ones. Our results also highlight the importance of spatially explicit season-specific oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic and that environmental variability and the lack of data are a major source of uncertainty related to the oil spill impacts.
ISSN:0013-936X
1520-5851
DOI:10.1021/acs.est.9b07086