Phase- and epidemic region-adjusted estimation of the number of coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 in China was first reported in Wuhan in December 2019 and gradually spread to other areas in China. After implementation of prevention and control measures, the estimation of the epidemic trend is needed. A phase- and region-adjusted SEIR model was applie...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Frontiers of medicine 2020-04, Vol.14 (2), p.199-209
Main Authors: Chang, Ruijie, Wang, Huwen, Zhang, Shuxian, Wang, Zezhou, Dong, Yinqiao, Tsamlag, Lhakpa, Yu, Xiaoyue, Xu, Chen, Yu, Yuelin, Long, Rusi, Liu, Ning-Ning, Chu, Qiao, Wang, Ying, Xu, Gang, Shen, Tian, Wang, Suping, Deng, Xiaobei, Huang, Jinyan, Zhang, Xinxin, Wang, Hui, Cai, Yong
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Betacoronavirus
China
China - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease prevention
Epidemics
estimate
Estimating techniques
Humans
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
Regions
Research Article
SARS-CoV-2
SEIR model
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Statistics as Topic
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Summary:The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 in China was first reported in Wuhan in December 2019 and gradually spread to other areas in China. After implementation of prevention and control measures, the estimation of the epidemic trend is needed. A phase- and region-adjusted SEIR model was applied for modeling and predicting the number of cases in Wuhan, Hubei Province and regions outside Hubei Province in China. The estimated number of infections could reach its peak in late February 2020 in Wuhan and Hubei Province, which is 55 303-84 520 and 83 944-129 312, respectively, while the epidemic peaks in regions outside Hubei Province in China could appear on February 13, 2020 with the estimated 13 035-19 108 cases. According to the estimation, the outbreak would abate in March and April all over China. Current estimation provided evidence for planned work resumption under stringent prevention and control in China to further support the fight against the epidemic. Nevertheless, there is still possibility of the second outbreak brought by the work resumption and population migration, especially from Hubei Province and high intensity cities outside Hubei Province. Strict prevention and control measures still need to be considered in the regions with high intensity of epidemic and densely-populated cities.
ISSN:2095-0217
2095-0225
2095-0225
DOI:10.1007/s11684-020-0768-7