Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China

This study models local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29, 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteris...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Population Economics 2020, Vol.33 (4), p.1127-1172
Main Authors: Qiu, Yun, Chen, Xi, Shi, Wei
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Community
Coronaviridae
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Demography
Disease control
Disease transmission
Economic conditions
Economic factors
Economics
Economics and Finance
Infections
Labor Economics
LEAD ARTICLE
Local communities
Original Paper
Population Economics
Proximity
Public health
Social Policy
Socioeconomic factors
Viral diseases
Viruses
Weather
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Summary:This study models local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29, 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteristics 2 weeks prior are used as instrumental variables for causal inference. Stringent quarantines, city lockdowns, and local public health measures imposed in late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate. The virus spread was contained by the middle of February. Population outflow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors, including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. We quantify the effects of different public health measures in reducing the number of infections through counterfactual analyses. Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths may have been avoided as a result of the national and provincial public health measures imposed in late January in China.
ISSN:0933-1433
1432-1475
DOI:10.1007/s00148-020-00778-2