Inferring super-spreading from transmission clusters of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore

Super-spreading events in an outbreak can change the nature of an epidemic. Therefore, it is useful for public health teams to determine whether an ongoing outbreak has any contribution from such events, which may be amenable to interventions. We estimated the basic reproductive number (R0) and the...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of hospital infection 2020-08, Vol.105 (4), p.682-685
Main Authors: Kwok, K.O., Chan, H.H.H., Huang, Y., Hui, D.S.C., Tambyah, P.A., Wei, W.I., Chau, P.Y.K., Wong, S.Y.S., Tang, J.W.T.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Betacoronavirus
Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - transmission
COVID-19
Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control
Disease Transmission, Infectious - statistics & numerical data
Hong Kong
Hong Kong - epidemiology
Humans
Japan
Japan - epidemiology
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral - transmission
SARS-CoV-2
Singapore
Singapore - epidemiology
Super-spreading
Transmission clusters
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Summary:Super-spreading events in an outbreak can change the nature of an epidemic. Therefore, it is useful for public health teams to determine whether an ongoing outbreak has any contribution from such events, which may be amenable to interventions. We estimated the basic reproductive number (R0) and the dispersion factor (k) from empirical data on clusters of epidemiologically linked coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore. This allowed us to infer the presence or absence of super-spreading events during the early phase of these outbreaks. The relatively large values of k implied that large cluster sizes, compatible with super-spreading, were unlikely.
ISSN:0195-6701
1532-2939
DOI:10.1016/j.jhin.2020.05.027