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Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring
Abstract Background The World Health Organization recommends monitoring Onchocerca volvulus Ov16 serology in children aged
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| Published in: | The Journal of infectious diseases 2020-06, Vol.221 (Supplement_5), p.S510-S518 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| container_end_page | S518 |
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| container_title | The Journal of infectious diseases |
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| creator | Hamley, Jonathan I D Walker, Martin Coffeng, Luc E Milton, Philip de Vlas, Sake J Stolk, Wilma A Basáñez, Maria-Gloria |
| description | Abstract
Background
The World Health Organization recommends monitoring Onchocerca volvulus Ov16 serology in children aged |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1093/infdis/jiz674 |
| format | article |
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Background
The World Health Organization recommends monitoring Onchocerca volvulus Ov16 serology in children aged <10 years for stopping mass ivermectin administration. Transmission models can help to identify the most informative age groups for serological monitoring and investigate the discriminatory power of serology-based elimination thresholds. Model predictions depend on assumed age-exposure patterns and transmission efficiency at low infection levels.
Methods
The individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, was used to assess (1) the most informative age groups for serological monitoring using receiver operating characteristic curves for different elimination thresholds under various age-dependent exposure assumptions, including those of ONCHOSIM (another widely used model), and (2) the influence of within-human density-dependent parasite establishment (included in EPIONCHO-IBM but not ONCHOSIM) on positive predictive values for different serological thresholds.
Results
When assuming EPIONCHO-IBM exposure patterns, children aged <10 years are the most informative for seromonitoring; when assuming ONCHOSIM exposure patterns, 5–14 year olds are the most informative (as published elsewhere). Omitting density-dependent parasite establishment results in more lenient seroprevalence thresholds, even for higher baseline infection prevalence and shorter treatment durations.
Conclusions
Selecting appropriate seromonitoring age groups depends critically on age-dependent exposure patterns. The role of density dependence on elimination thresholds largely explains differing EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM elimination predictions.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0022-1899</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1537-6613</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiz674</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32173745</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>US: Oxford University Press</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Age ; Age groups ; Aging ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Children ; Density dependence ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Ivermectin ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Onchocerciasis ; Onchocerciasis - transmission ; Population Surveillance - methods ; Serologic Tests ; Serology ; Sex Factors ; Supplement ; Uncertainty</subject><ispartof>The Journal of infectious diseases, 2020-06, Vol.221 (Supplement_5), p.S510-S518</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. 2020</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c415t-b192fde5f02815b25b2917b3698aaaeafa24ecdc4ea19d4f8a94fce84fff2b5c3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c415t-b192fde5f02815b25b2917b3698aaaeafa24ecdc4ea19d4f8a94fce84fff2b5c3</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-5031-3361</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>230,314,780,784,885,27923,27924</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32173745$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Hamley, Jonathan I D</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Walker, Martin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Coffeng, Luc E</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Milton, Philip</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>de Vlas, Sake J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Stolk, Wilma A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Basáñez, Maria-Gloria</creatorcontrib><title>Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring</title><title>The Journal of infectious diseases</title><addtitle>J Infect Dis</addtitle><description>Abstract
Background
The World Health Organization recommends monitoring Onchocerca volvulus Ov16 serology in children aged <10 years for stopping mass ivermectin administration. Transmission models can help to identify the most informative age groups for serological monitoring and investigate the discriminatory power of serology-based elimination thresholds. Model predictions depend on assumed age-exposure patterns and transmission efficiency at low infection levels.
Methods
The individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, was used to assess (1) the most informative age groups for serological monitoring using receiver operating characteristic curves for different elimination thresholds under various age-dependent exposure assumptions, including those of ONCHOSIM (another widely used model), and (2) the influence of within-human density-dependent parasite establishment (included in EPIONCHO-IBM but not ONCHOSIM) on positive predictive values for different serological thresholds.
Results
When assuming EPIONCHO-IBM exposure patterns, children aged <10 years are the most informative for seromonitoring; when assuming ONCHOSIM exposure patterns, 5–14 year olds are the most informative (as published elsewhere). Omitting density-dependent parasite establishment results in more lenient seroprevalence thresholds, even for higher baseline infection prevalence and shorter treatment durations.
Conclusions
Selecting appropriate seromonitoring age groups depends critically on age-dependent exposure patterns. The role of density dependence on elimination thresholds largely explains differing EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM elimination predictions.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Age</subject><subject>Age groups</subject><subject>Aging</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Child, Preschool</subject><subject>Children</subject><subject>Density dependence</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infant</subject><subject>Ivermectin</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Models, Biological</subject><subject>Onchocerciasis</subject><subject>Onchocerciasis - transmission</subject><subject>Population Surveillance - methods</subject><subject>Serologic Tests</subject><subject>Serology</subject><subject>Sex Factors</subject><subject>Supplement</subject><subject>Uncertainty</subject><issn>0022-1899</issn><issn>1537-6613</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>TOX</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkc9rFTEQx4Mo9lk9epWAFy9rN9nsj1yEUp61UOmhr-eQzU7e5rGbPDNZof4z_qumbFv0JASGZD7zncl8CXnPys-slNWZ83ZweHZwv5pWvCAbVldt0TSsekk2Zcl5wTopT8gbxENZlqJq2tfkpOKsrVpRb8jv2xQXk5aoJ3rnDcSknU_31Hl6480Y8otxGh3SXdQeZ4fogqffwwAT0itvpwVyGdI0At1icrNOD0CwdDu52fn1uhsj4BimAan2A72FCcwTd74HehnDckRqQ8y5GObgXQrR-f1b8srqCeHdYzwld1-3u4tvxfXN5dXF-XVhBKtT0TPJ7QC1LXnH6p7nI1nbV43stNagreYCzGAEaCYHYTsthTXQCWst72tTnZIvq-5x6WcYDPiUV6KOMX8o3qugnfo3492o9uGnankna9FmgY-PAjH8WACTOoQl-jyz4kJ0jWRNzTNVrJSJATGCfe7ASvXgp1r9VKufmf_w91jP9JOBGfi0Anl__9H6A3uhswA</recordid><startdate>20200611</startdate><enddate>20200611</enddate><creator>Hamley, Jonathan I D</creator><creator>Walker, Martin</creator><creator>Coffeng, Luc E</creator><creator>Milton, Philip</creator><creator>de Vlas, Sake J</creator><creator>Stolk, Wilma A</creator><creator>Basáñez, Maria-Gloria</creator><general>Oxford University Press</general><scope>TOX</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5031-3361</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20200611</creationdate><title>Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring</title><author>Hamley, Jonathan I D ; Walker, Martin ; Coffeng, Luc E ; Milton, Philip ; de Vlas, Sake J ; Stolk, Wilma A ; Basáñez, Maria-Gloria</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c415t-b192fde5f02815b25b2917b3698aaaeafa24ecdc4ea19d4f8a94fce84fff2b5c3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Adolescent</topic><topic>Age</topic><topic>Age groups</topic><topic>Aging</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Child, Preschool</topic><topic>Children</topic><topic>Density dependence</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infant</topic><topic>Ivermectin</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Models, Biological</topic><topic>Onchocerciasis</topic><topic>Onchocerciasis - transmission</topic><topic>Population Surveillance - methods</topic><topic>Serologic Tests</topic><topic>Serology</topic><topic>Sex Factors</topic><topic>Supplement</topic><topic>Uncertainty</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Hamley, Jonathan I D</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Walker, Martin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Coffeng, Luc E</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Milton, Philip</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>de Vlas, Sake J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Stolk, Wilma A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Basáñez, Maria-Gloria</creatorcontrib><collection>OUP_牛津大学出版社OA刊</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>The Journal of infectious diseases</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Hamley, Jonathan I D</au><au>Walker, Martin</au><au>Coffeng, Luc E</au><au>Milton, Philip</au><au>de Vlas, Sake J</au><au>Stolk, Wilma A</au><au>Basáñez, Maria-Gloria</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring</atitle><jtitle>The Journal of infectious diseases</jtitle><addtitle>J Infect Dis</addtitle><date>2020-06-11</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>221</volume><issue>Supplement_5</issue><spage>S510</spage><epage>S518</epage><pages>S510-S518</pages><issn>0022-1899</issn><eissn>1537-6613</eissn><abstract>Abstract
Background
The World Health Organization recommends monitoring Onchocerca volvulus Ov16 serology in children aged <10 years for stopping mass ivermectin administration. Transmission models can help to identify the most informative age groups for serological monitoring and investigate the discriminatory power of serology-based elimination thresholds. Model predictions depend on assumed age-exposure patterns and transmission efficiency at low infection levels.
Methods
The individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, was used to assess (1) the most informative age groups for serological monitoring using receiver operating characteristic curves for different elimination thresholds under various age-dependent exposure assumptions, including those of ONCHOSIM (another widely used model), and (2) the influence of within-human density-dependent parasite establishment (included in EPIONCHO-IBM but not ONCHOSIM) on positive predictive values for different serological thresholds.
Results
When assuming EPIONCHO-IBM exposure patterns, children aged <10 years are the most informative for seromonitoring; when assuming ONCHOSIM exposure patterns, 5–14 year olds are the most informative (as published elsewhere). Omitting density-dependent parasite establishment results in more lenient seroprevalence thresholds, even for higher baseline infection prevalence and shorter treatment durations.
Conclusions
Selecting appropriate seromonitoring age groups depends critically on age-dependent exposure patterns. The role of density dependence on elimination thresholds largely explains differing EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM elimination predictions.</abstract><cop>US</cop><pub>Oxford University Press</pub><pmid>32173745</pmid><doi>10.1093/infdis/jiz674</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5031-3361</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | The Journal of infectious diseases, 2020-06, Vol.221 (Supplement_5), p.S510-S518 |
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| source | Oxford Journals Online |
| subjects | Adolescent Age Age groups Aging Child Child, Preschool Children Density dependence Female Humans Infant Ivermectin Male Models, Biological Onchocerciasis Onchocerciasis - transmission Population Surveillance - methods Serologic Tests Serology Sex Factors Supplement Uncertainty |
| title | Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring |
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