Larval Indices of Vector Mosquitoes as Predictors of Dengue Epidemics: An Approach to Manage Dengue Outbreaks Based on Entomological Parameters in the Districts of Colombo and Kandy, Sri Lanka

Background. Early detection of dengue epidemics is a vital aspect in control programmes. Predictions based on larval indices of disease vectors are widely used in dengue control, with defined threshold values. However, there is no set threshold in Sri Lanka at the national or regional levels for Aed...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:BioMed research international 2020, Vol.2020 (2020), p.1-11
Main Authors: Fernando, Thilan, Iqbal, M. C. M., Gunathilaka, Nayana, Aryaprema, Subashinie, Udayanga, Lahiru, Abeyewickreme, Wimaladharma
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aedes - growth & development
Aedes aegypti
Aedes albopictus
Analysis
Animals
Dengue - epidemiology
Dengue - prevention & control
Dengue - transmission
Dengue fever
Developing countries
Development and progression
Epidemics
Health risks
Health surveillance
Houses
Human resources
Humans
Larva - growth & development
LDCs
Morphology
Mosquito Control
Mosquito Vectors - growth & development
Mosquitoes
Pest outbreaks
Public health
Risk
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka - epidemiology
Taiwan
Thresholds
Vector-borne diseases
Vectors
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Summary:Background. Early detection of dengue epidemics is a vital aspect in control programmes. Predictions based on larval indices of disease vectors are widely used in dengue control, with defined threshold values. However, there is no set threshold in Sri Lanka at the national or regional levels for Aedes larval indices. Therefore, the current study aimed at developing threshold values for vector indices in two dengue high-risk districts in Sri Lanka. Methods. Monthly vector indices (House Index [HI], Container Index [CI], Breteau Index for Aedes aegypti [BIagp], and Ae. albopictus [BIalb]), of ten selected dengue high-risk Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas located in Colombo and Kandy districts, were collected from January 2010 to June 2019, along with monthly reported dengue cases. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis in SPSS (version 23) was used to assess the discriminative power of the larval indices in identifying dengue epidemics and to develop thresholds for the dengue epidemic management. Results. Only HI and BIagp denoted significant associations with dengue epidemics at lag periods of one and two months. Based on Ae. aegypti, average threshold values were defined for Colombo as Low Risk (2.4≤BIagp
ISSN:2314-6133
2314-6141
DOI:10.1155/2020/6386952