The Effects of Air Pollution on COVID-19 Related Mortality in Northern Italy

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollutant concentrations is known to cause chronic lung inflammation, a condition that may promote increased severity of COVID-19 syndrome caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). In this paper, we empirically investigate the ecologic association between long-t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental & resource economics 2020-08, Vol.76 (4), p.611-634
Main Authors: Coker, Eric S., Cavalli, Laura, Fabrizi, Enrico, Guastella, Gianni, Lippo, Enrico, Parisi, Maria Laura, Pontarollo, Nicola, Rizzati, Massimiliano, Varacca, Alessandro, Vergalli, Sergio
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air pollution
Air pollution effects
Concentration
Confidence intervals
Confounding factors
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease transmission
Economic Policy
Economics
Economics and Finance
Environmental Economics
Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice
Environmental Management
Epidemiology
Inflammation
Mortality
Municipalities
Particulate emissions
Particulate matter
Pollutants
Regression analysis
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Spatial analysis
Spatial distribution
Statistical analysis
Urbanization
Viral diseases
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Summary:Long-term exposure to ambient air pollutant concentrations is known to cause chronic lung inflammation, a condition that may promote increased severity of COVID-19 syndrome caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). In this paper, we empirically investigate the ecologic association between long-term concentrations of area-level fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and excess deaths in the first quarter of 2020 in municipalities of Northern Italy. The study accounts for potentially spatial confounding factors related to urbanization that may have influenced the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 and related COVID-19 mortality. Our epidemiological analysis uses geographical information (e.g., municipalities) and negative binomial regression to assess whether both ambient PM 2.5 concentration and excess mortality have a similar spatial distribution. Our analysis suggests a positive association of ambient PM 2.5 concentration on excess mortality in Northern Italy related to the COVID-19 epidemic. Our estimates suggest that a one-unit increase in PM 2.5 concentration (µg/m 3 ) is associated with a 9% (95% confidence interval: 6–12%) increase in COVID-19 related mortality.
ISSN:0924-6460
1573-1502
DOI:10.1007/s10640-020-00486-1