Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin

Wildfire activity is expected to increase across the Mediterranean Basin because of climate change. However, the effects of future climate change on the combinations of atmospheric conditions that promote wildfire activity remain largely unknown. Using a fire-weather based classification of wildfire...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2020-08, Vol.10 (1), Article 13790
Main Authors: Ruffault, Julien, Curt, Thomas, Moron, Vincent, Trigo, Ricardo M., Mouillot, Florent, Koutsias, Nikos, Pimont, François, Martin-StPaul, Nicolas, Barbero, Renaud, Dupuy, Jean-Luc, Russo, Ana, Belhadj-Khedher, Chiraz
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
631/158
631/158/2465
704/106/694/2739
704/4111
Atmospheric conditions
Climate change
Climate effects
Drought
Environmental Sciences
Global Changes
Heat
Heat waves
Humanities and Social Sciences
multidisciplinary
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Weather
Wildfires
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Summary:Wildfire activity is expected to increase across the Mediterranean Basin because of climate change. However, the effects of future climate change on the combinations of atmospheric conditions that promote wildfire activity remain largely unknown. Using a fire-weather based classification of wildfires, we show that future climate scenarios point to an increase in the frequency of two heat-induced fire-weather types that have been related to the largest wildfires in recent years. Heat-induced fire-weather types are characterized by compound dry and warm conditions occurring during summer heatwaves, either under moderate ( heatwave type) or intense ( hot drought type) drought. The frequency of heat-induced fire-weather is projected to increase by 14% by the end of the century (2071–2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 30% under the RCP8.5, suggesting that the frequency and extent of large wildfires will increase throughout the Mediterranean Basin.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-020-70069-z