The predictable chaos of slow earthquakes

Slow earthquakes result from deterministic chaos and show predictability horizon time of the order of days to weeks. Slow earthquakes, like regular earthquakes, result from unstable frictional slip. They produce little slip and can therefore repeat frequently. We assess their predictability using th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science advances 2020-07, Vol.6 (27)
Main Authors: Gualandi, A., Avouac, J.-P., Michel, S., Faranda, D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Chaotic Dynamics
Dynamical Systems
Earth Sciences
Geophysics
Mathematics
Nonlinear Sciences
SciAdv r-articles
Sciences of the Universe
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Summary:Slow earthquakes result from deterministic chaos and show predictability horizon time of the order of days to weeks. Slow earthquakes, like regular earthquakes, result from unstable frictional slip. They produce little slip and can therefore repeat frequently. We assess their predictability using the slip history of the Cascadia subduction between 2007 and 2017, during which slow earthquakes have repeatedly ruptured multiple segments. We characterize the system dynamics using embedding theory and extreme value theory. The analysis reveals a low-dimensional (
ISSN:2375-2548
2375-2548
DOI:10.1126/sciadv.aaz5548