Analyzing the spatial determinants of local Covid-19 transmission in the United States

The Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) has quickly spread across the United States (U.S.) since community transmission was first identified in January 2020. While a number of studies have examined individual-level risk factors for COVID-19, few studies have examined geographic hotspots and community...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Science of the total environment 2021-02, Vol.754, p.142396-142396, Article 142396
Main Authors: Andersen, Lauren M., Harden, Stella R., Sugg, Margaret M., Runkle, Jennifer D., Lundquist, Taylor E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Cluster analysis
Counties
COVID-19
COVID-19 - mortality
COVID-19 - transmission
Disease Hotspot
Geography
Humans
Pandemics
Population Surveillance
Regression
Risk Factors
Spatial determinants
United States - epidemiology
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Summary:The Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) has quickly spread across the United States (U.S.) since community transmission was first identified in January 2020. While a number of studies have examined individual-level risk factors for COVID-19, few studies have examined geographic hotspots and community drivers associated with spatial patterns in local transmission. The objective of the study is to understand the spatial determinants of the pandemic in counties across the U.S. by comparing socioeconomic variables to case and death data from January 22nd to June 30th 2020. A cluster analysis was performed to examine areas of high-risk, followed by a three-stage regression to examine contextual factors associated with elevated risk patterns for morbidity and mortality. The factors associated with community-level vulnerability included age, disability, language, race, occupation, and urban status. We recommend that cluster detection and spatial analysis be included in population-based surveillance strategies to better inform early case detection and prioritize healthcare resources. [Display omitted] •Cluster analysis, three-stage regression used to assess COVID-19 determinants in U.S.•COVID-19 hotspots predominantly in New England and the Southeast and Southwest•Urban, Black population among significant predictors of COVID-19 cases and deaths•Predictors significant at county, state levels despite behavior, policy differences
ISSN:0048-9697
1879-1026
1879-1026
DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142396