COVID-19 pandemic and chaos theory

The dynamics of COVID-19 is investigated with regard to complex contributions of the omitted factors. For this purpose, we use a fractional order SEIR model which allows us to calculate the number of infections considering the chaotic contributions into susceptible, exposed, infectious and removed n...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Mathematics and computers in simulation 2021-03, Vol.181, p.138-149
Main Authors: Postavaru, O., Anton, S.R., Toma, A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bernoulli polynomials
Block-pulse
Caputo derivative
Epidemic models
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Summary:The dynamics of COVID-19 is investigated with regard to complex contributions of the omitted factors. For this purpose, we use a fractional order SEIR model which allows us to calculate the number of infections considering the chaotic contributions into susceptible, exposed, infectious and removed number of individuals. We check our model on Wuhan, China-2019 and South Korea underlying the importance of the chaotic contribution, and then we extend it to Italy and the USA. Results are of great guiding significance to promote evidence-based decisions and policy.
ISSN:0378-4754
1872-7166
0378-4754
DOI:10.1016/j.matcom.2020.09.029