Daily mapping of Australian Plague Locust abundance

Locust population outbreaks have been a longstanding problem for Australian agriculture. Since its inception in the mid-1970s, The Australian Plague Locust Commission (APLC) is responsible for monitoring, forecasting and controlling populations of several locust pest species across inland eastern Au...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2020-10, Vol.10 (1), p.16915, Article 16915
Main Authors: Mangeon, Stéphane, Spessa, Allan, Deveson, Edward, Darnell, Ross, Kriticos, Darren J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
631/158/1144
631/158/851
639/705/531
Abundance
Agriculture
Algorithms
Climate change
Environmental conditions
Generalized linear models
Grasslands
Humanities and Social Sciences
Industrial research
Mathematical models
multidisciplinary
Plague
Population
Population studies
Productivity
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Statistical analysis
Statistical models
Surveillance
Vapor pressure
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Locust population outbreaks have been a longstanding problem for Australian agriculture. Since its inception in the mid-1970s, The Australian Plague Locust Commission (APLC) is responsible for monitoring, forecasting and controlling populations of several locust pest species across inland eastern Australia (ca. two million km 2 ). Ground surveys are typically targeted according to prevailing environmental conditions. However, due to the sheer size of the region and limited resources, such surveys remain sparse. Here we develop daily time-step statistical models of populations of Chortoicetes terminifera (Australian plague locust) that can used to predict abundances when observations are lacking, plus uncertainties. We firstly identified key environmental covariates of locust abundance, then examined their relationship with C. terminifera populations by interpreting the responses of Generalized Additive Models (GAM). We also illustrate how estimates of C. terminifera abundance plus uncertainties can be visualized across the region. Our results support earlier studies, specifically, populations peak in grasslands with high productivity, and decline rapidly under very hot and dry conditions. We also identified new relationships, specifically, a strong positive effect of vapour pressure and sunlight, and a negative effect of soil sand content on C. terminifera abundance. Our modelling tool may assist future APLC management and surveillance effort.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-020-73897-1