A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe

The self-organizing mechanism is a universal approach that is widely followed in nature. In this work, a novel self-organizing model describing diffusion over a lattice is introduced. Simulation results for the model's active lattice sites demonstrate an evolution curve that is very close to th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of environmental research and public health 2020-09, Vol.17 (18), p.6525
Main Authors: Contoyiannis, Yiannis, Stavrinides, Stavros G, P Hanias, Michael, Kampitakis, Myron, Papadopoulos, Pericles, Picos, Rodrigo, M Potirakis, Stelios
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Autocorrelation functions
Betacoronavirus
Computer simulation
Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Critical phenomena
Disease control
Dynamical systems
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Europe - epidemiology
Humans
Lattice sites
Models, Theoretical
Pandemics
Phase transitions
Physics
Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
Population
SARS-CoV-2
Viruses
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Summary:The self-organizing mechanism is a universal approach that is widely followed in nature. In this work, a novel self-organizing model describing diffusion over a lattice is introduced. Simulation results for the model's active lattice sites demonstrate an evolution curve that is very close to those describing the evolution of infected European populations by COVID-19. The model was further examined against real data regarding the COVID-19 epidemic for seven European countries (with a total population of 290 million) during the periods in which social distancing measures were imposed, namely Italy and Spain, which had an enormous spread of the disease; the successful case of Greece; and four central European countries: France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. The value of the proposed model lies in its simplicity and in the fact that it is based on a universal natural mechanism, which through the presentation of an equivalent dynamical system apparently documents and provides a better understanding of the dynamical process behind viral epidemic spreads in general-even pandemics, such as in the case of COVID-19-further allowing us to come closer to controlling such situations. Finally, this model allowed the study of dynamical characteristics such as the memory effect, through the autocorrelation function, in the studied epidemiological dynamical systems.
ISSN:1660-4601
1661-7827
1660-4601
DOI:10.3390/ijerph17186525