Transmission dynamics reveal the impracticality of COVID-19 herd immunity strategies

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2020-10, Vol.117 (41), p.25897-25903
• Main Authors: Brett, Tobias S., Rohania, Pejman
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Age; Age Factors; Betacoronavirus - physiology; Biological Sciences; Communicable Disease Control - methods; Computer Simulation; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections - immunology; Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control; Coronavirus Infections - transmission; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Depletion; Disease control; Disease Susceptibility - epidemiology; Disease Susceptibility - immunology; Disease transmission; Growth rate; Health care; Herd immunity; Humans; Immunity; Immunity, Herd; Mitigation; Modelling; Models, Theoretical; Pandemics - prevention & control; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology; Pneumonia, Viral - immunology; Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control; Pneumonia, Viral - transmission; Public health; SARS-CoV-2; Severe acute respiratory syndrome; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Social distancing; United Kingdom - epidemiology; Viral diseases; Viruses
• ISSN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008087117

The rapid growth rate of COVID-19 continues to threaten to overwhelm healthcare systems in multiple countries. In response, severely affected countries have had to impose a range of public health strategies achieved via nonpharmaceutical interventions. Broadly, these strategies have fallen into two categories: 1) “mitigation,” which aims to achieve herd immunity by allowing the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus to spread through the population while mitigating disease burden, and 2) “suppression,” aiming to drastically reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates and halt endogenous transmission in the target population. Using an age-structured transmission model, parameterized to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United Kingdom, we assessed the long-term prospects of success using both of these approaches. We simulated a range of different nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios incorporating social distancing applied to differing age groups. Our modeling confirmed that suppression of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is possible with plausible levels of social distancing over a period of months, consistent with observed trends. Notably, our modeling did not support achieving herd immunity as a practical objective, requiring an unlikely balancing of multiple poorly defined forces. Specifically, we found that 1) social distancing must initially reduce the transmission rate to within a narrow range, 2) to compensate for susceptible depletion, the extent of social distancing must be adaptive over time in a precise yet unfeasible way, and 3) social distancing must be maintained for an extended period to ensure the healthcare system is not overwhelmed.