COVID-19 lockdown induces disease-mitigating structural changes in mobility networks

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic many countries implemented containment measures to reduce disease transmission. Studies using digital data sources show that the mobility of individuals was effectively reduced in multiple countries. However, it remains unclear whether these reductions caused dee...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2020-12, Vol.117 (52), p.32883-32890
Main Authors: Schlosser, Frank, Maier, Benjamin F., Jack, Olivia, Hinrichs, David, Zachariae, Adrian, Brockmann, Dirk
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Cell Phone
COVID-19 - prevention & control
Germany
Humans
Pandemics
Physical Sciences
Quarantine
Social Sciences
Spatial Analysis
Travel - statistics & numerical data
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Summary:In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic many countries implemented containment measures to reduce disease transmission. Studies using digital data sources show that the mobility of individuals was effectively reduced in multiple countries. However, it remains unclear whether these reductions caused deeper structural changes in mobility networks and how such changes may affect dynamic processes on the network. Here we use movement data of mobile phone users to show that mobility in Germany has not only been reduced considerably: Lockdown measures caused substantial and long-lasting structural changes in the mobility network. We find that long-distance travel was reduced disproportionately strongly. The trimming of long-range network connectivity leads to a more local, clustered network and a moderation of the “small-world” effect. We demonstrate that these structural changes have a considerable effect on epidemic spreading processes by “flattening” the epidemic curve and delaying the spread to geographically distant regions.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2012326117