Modeling the progression of COVID-19 deaths using Kalman Filter and AutoML

• Published in: Soft computing (Berlin, Germany) Germany), 2023-03, Vol.27 (6), p.3229-3244
• Main Authors: Han, Tao, Gois, Francisco Nauber Bernardo, Oliveira, Ramsés, Prates, Luan Rocha, Porto, Magda Moura de Almeida
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Focus
• ISSN: 1432-7643; 1433-7479
• DOI: 10.1007/s00500-020-05503-5

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a destructive effect on the health and well-being of the global population. A vital step in the battle against it is the successful screening of infected patients, together with one of the effective screening methods being radiology examination using chest radiography. Recognition of epidemic growth patterns across temporal and social factors can improve our capability to create epidemic transmission designs, including the critical job of predicting the estimated intensity of the outbreak morbidity or mortality impact at the end. The study's primary motivation is to be able to estimate with a certain level of accuracy the number of deaths due to COVID-19, managing to model the progression of the pandemic. Predicting the number of possible deaths from COVID-19 can provide governments and decision-makers with indicators for purchasing respirators and pandemic prevention policies. Thus, this work presents itself as an essential contribution to combating the pandemic. Kalman Filter is a widely used method for tracking and navigation and filtering and time series. Designing and tuning machine learning methods are a labor- and time-intensive task that requires extensive experience. The field of automated machine learning Auto Machine Learning relies on automating this task. Auto Machine Learning tools enable novice users to create useful machine learning units, while experts can use them to free up valuable time for other tasks. This paper presents an objective method of forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak using Kalman Filter and Auto Machine Learning. We use a COVID-19 dataset of Ceará, one of the 27 federative units in Brazil. Ceará has more than 235,222 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 8850 deaths due to the disease. The TPOT automobile model showed the best result with a 0.99 of score.