A new model for epidemic prediction: COVID-19 in kingdom saudi arabia case study

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a viral infection that rose in a city in the Chinese province of Hubei, Wuhan. The world did not wait too long until the virus spread to reach Europe, Africa, and America to be a global pandemic. Due to the lack of information about the behaviour of the virus,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Materials today : proceedings 2021-01
Main Authors: Mohamed, Islam Abdalla, Aissa, Anis Ben, Hussein, Loay F, Taloba, Ahmed I, Kallel, Tarak
Format: Article
Language:English
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a viral infection that rose in a city in the Chinese province of Hubei, Wuhan. The world did not wait too long until the virus spread to reach Europe, Africa, and America to be a global pandemic. Due to the lack of information about the behaviour of the virus, several prediction models are in use all over around the world for decision making and taking precautionary actions. Therefor, in this paper, a new model named MSIR based on SIR model is proposed. The model is used to predict the spread of the disease in three cities Riyadh, Hufof and Jeddah in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Also the estimation of disease propagation with and without containment measure is carried out. We think that the results could be used to enhance the predictability of the pandemic outbreaks in other cities and to build long term artificial intelligence prediction model.
ISSN:2214-7853
2214-7853
DOI:10.1016/j.matpr.2021.01.088