A new model for epidemic prediction: COVID-19 in kingdom saudi arabia case study

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a viral infection that rose in a city in the Chinese province of Hubei, Wuhan. The world did not wait too long until the virus spread to reach Europe, Africa, and America to be a global pandemic. Due to the lack of information about the behaviour of the virus,...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Materials today : proceedings 2021-01
Main Authors: Mohamed, Islam Abdalla, Aissa, Anis Ben, Hussein, Loay F, Taloba, Ahmed I, Kallel, Tarak
Format: Article
Language:English
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
cited_by
cites
container_end_page
container_issue
container_start_page
container_title Materials today : proceedings
container_volume
creator Mohamed, Islam Abdalla
Aissa, Anis Ben
Hussein, Loay F
Taloba, Ahmed I
Kallel, Tarak
description Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a viral infection that rose in a city in the Chinese province of Hubei, Wuhan. The world did not wait too long until the virus spread to reach Europe, Africa, and America to be a global pandemic. Due to the lack of information about the behaviour of the virus, several prediction models are in use all over around the world for decision making and taking precautionary actions. Therefor, in this paper, a new model named MSIR based on SIR model is proposed. The model is used to predict the spread of the disease in three cities Riyadh, Hufof and Jeddah in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Also the estimation of disease propagation with and without containment measure is carried out. We think that the results could be used to enhance the predictability of the pandemic outbreaks in other cities and to build long term artificial intelligence prediction model.
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.matpr.2021.01.088
format article
fullrecord <record><control><sourceid>proquest_pubme</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_7826105</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2484161907</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-p181t-dff0635cf72a0dc3af94016bcf8a770a6b9fac901e54279d3a463fd47deebb613</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNpVkFtLw0AQhRdRbKn9BYLsoy-Je0l2Ex-EUm-FQn1QX8NkL3Vrbu4mSv-9BatUODADZ_gOcxA6pySmhIqrTVxD3_mYEUZjslOWHaExYzSJZJby44N9hKYhbAghNBUko-IUjThPGRGSjtHTDDfmC9etNhW2rcemc9rUTuHOG-1U79rmGs9Xr4vbiObYNfjdNWvd1jjAoB0GD6UDrCAYHPpBb8_QiYUqmOl-TtDL_d3z_DFarh4W89ky6mhG-0hbSwRPlZUMiFYcbJ7s_iqVzUBKAqLMLaicUJMmTOaaQyK41YnUxpSloHyCbn643VDWRivT9B6qovOuBr8tWnDFf6dxb8W6_SxkxgQl6Q5wuQf49mMwoS9qF5SpKmhMO4SCJVlCBc2J3J1eHGb9hfzWyL8BGrB3Zg</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Open Access Repository</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2484161907</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>A new model for epidemic prediction: COVID-19 in kingdom saudi arabia case study</title><source>Elsevier</source><creator>Mohamed, Islam Abdalla ; Aissa, Anis Ben ; Hussein, Loay F ; Taloba, Ahmed I ; Kallel, Tarak</creator><creatorcontrib>Mohamed, Islam Abdalla ; Aissa, Anis Ben ; Hussein, Loay F ; Taloba, Ahmed I ; Kallel, Tarak</creatorcontrib><description>Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a viral infection that rose in a city in the Chinese province of Hubei, Wuhan. The world did not wait too long until the virus spread to reach Europe, Africa, and America to be a global pandemic. Due to the lack of information about the behaviour of the virus, several prediction models are in use all over around the world for decision making and taking precautionary actions. Therefor, in this paper, a new model named MSIR based on SIR model is proposed. The model is used to predict the spread of the disease in three cities Riyadh, Hufof and Jeddah in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Also the estimation of disease propagation with and without containment measure is carried out. We think that the results could be used to enhance the predictability of the pandemic outbreaks in other cities and to build long term artificial intelligence prediction model.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2214-7853</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2214-7853</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.matpr.2021.01.088</identifier><identifier>PMID: 33520671</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>England: Elsevier Ltd</publisher><ispartof>Materials today : proceedings, 2021-01</ispartof><rights>2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Emerging Trends in Materials Science, Technology and Engineering.</rights><rights>2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Emerging Trends in Materials Science, Technology and Engineering. 2021</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>230,314,776,780,881,27903,27904</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33520671$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Mohamed, Islam Abdalla</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Aissa, Anis Ben</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hussein, Loay F</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Taloba, Ahmed I</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kallel, Tarak</creatorcontrib><title>A new model for epidemic prediction: COVID-19 in kingdom saudi arabia case study</title><title>Materials today : proceedings</title><addtitle>Mater Today Proc</addtitle><description>Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a viral infection that rose in a city in the Chinese province of Hubei, Wuhan. The world did not wait too long until the virus spread to reach Europe, Africa, and America to be a global pandemic. Due to the lack of information about the behaviour of the virus, several prediction models are in use all over around the world for decision making and taking precautionary actions. Therefor, in this paper, a new model named MSIR based on SIR model is proposed. The model is used to predict the spread of the disease in three cities Riyadh, Hufof and Jeddah in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Also the estimation of disease propagation with and without containment measure is carried out. We think that the results could be used to enhance the predictability of the pandemic outbreaks in other cities and to build long term artificial intelligence prediction model.</description><issn>2214-7853</issn><issn>2214-7853</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNpVkFtLw0AQhRdRbKn9BYLsoy-Je0l2Ex-EUm-FQn1QX8NkL3Vrbu4mSv-9BatUODADZ_gOcxA6pySmhIqrTVxD3_mYEUZjslOWHaExYzSJZJby44N9hKYhbAghNBUko-IUjThPGRGSjtHTDDfmC9etNhW2rcemc9rUTuHOG-1U79rmGs9Xr4vbiObYNfjdNWvd1jjAoB0GD6UDrCAYHPpBb8_QiYUqmOl-TtDL_d3z_DFarh4W89ky6mhG-0hbSwRPlZUMiFYcbJ7s_iqVzUBKAqLMLaicUJMmTOaaQyK41YnUxpSloHyCbn643VDWRivT9B6qovOuBr8tWnDFf6dxb8W6_SxkxgQl6Q5wuQf49mMwoS9qF5SpKmhMO4SCJVlCBc2J3J1eHGb9hfzWyL8BGrB3Zg</recordid><startdate>20210123</startdate><enddate>20210123</enddate><creator>Mohamed, Islam Abdalla</creator><creator>Aissa, Anis Ben</creator><creator>Hussein, Loay F</creator><creator>Taloba, Ahmed I</creator><creator>Kallel, Tarak</creator><general>Elsevier Ltd</general><scope>NPM</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20210123</creationdate><title>A new model for epidemic prediction: COVID-19 in kingdom saudi arabia case study</title><author>Mohamed, Islam Abdalla ; Aissa, Anis Ben ; Hussein, Loay F ; Taloba, Ahmed I ; Kallel, Tarak</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-p181t-dff0635cf72a0dc3af94016bcf8a770a6b9fac901e54279d3a463fd47deebb613</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Mohamed, Islam Abdalla</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Aissa, Anis Ben</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hussein, Loay F</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Taloba, Ahmed I</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kallel, Tarak</creatorcontrib><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Materials today : proceedings</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Mohamed, Islam Abdalla</au><au>Aissa, Anis Ben</au><au>Hussein, Loay F</au><au>Taloba, Ahmed I</au><au>Kallel, Tarak</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>A new model for epidemic prediction: COVID-19 in kingdom saudi arabia case study</atitle><jtitle>Materials today : proceedings</jtitle><addtitle>Mater Today Proc</addtitle><date>2021-01-23</date><risdate>2021</risdate><issn>2214-7853</issn><eissn>2214-7853</eissn><abstract>Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a viral infection that rose in a city in the Chinese province of Hubei, Wuhan. The world did not wait too long until the virus spread to reach Europe, Africa, and America to be a global pandemic. Due to the lack of information about the behaviour of the virus, several prediction models are in use all over around the world for decision making and taking precautionary actions. Therefor, in this paper, a new model named MSIR based on SIR model is proposed. The model is used to predict the spread of the disease in three cities Riyadh, Hufof and Jeddah in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Also the estimation of disease propagation with and without containment measure is carried out. We think that the results could be used to enhance the predictability of the pandemic outbreaks in other cities and to build long term artificial intelligence prediction model.</abstract><cop>England</cop><pub>Elsevier Ltd</pub><pmid>33520671</pmid><doi>10.1016/j.matpr.2021.01.088</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
fulltext fulltext
identifier ISSN: 2214-7853
ispartof Materials today : proceedings, 2021-01
issn 2214-7853
2214-7853
language eng
recordid cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_7826105
source Elsevier
title A new model for epidemic prediction: COVID-19 in kingdom saudi arabia case study
url http://sfxeu10.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/loughborough?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-21T16%3A53%3A38IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_pubme&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=A%20new%20model%20for%20epidemic%20prediction:%20COVID-19%20in%20kingdom%20saudi%20arabia%20case%20study&rft.jtitle=Materials%20today%20:%20proceedings&rft.au=Mohamed,%20Islam%20Abdalla&rft.date=2021-01-23&rft.issn=2214-7853&rft.eissn=2214-7853&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016/j.matpr.2021.01.088&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_pubme%3E2484161907%3C/proquest_pubme%3E%3Cgrp_id%3Ecdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-p181t-dff0635cf72a0dc3af94016bcf8a770a6b9fac901e54279d3a463fd47deebb613%3C/grp_id%3E%3Coa%3E%3C/oa%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2484161907&rft_id=info:pmid/33520671&rfr_iscdi=true