Evaluation of extreme sub-daily precipitation in high-resolution global climate model simulations

We examine the resolution dependence of errors in extreme sub-daily precipitation in available high-resolution climate models. We find that simulated extreme precipitation increases as horizontal resolution increases but that appropriately constructed model skill metrics do not significantly change....

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences physical, and engineering sciences, 2021-04, Vol.379 (2195), p.20190545
Main Authors: Wehner, Michael, Lee, Jiwoo, Risser, Mark, Ullrich, Paul, Gleckler, Peter, Collins, William D
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
extreme precipitation
high-resolution global climate models
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Summary:We examine the resolution dependence of errors in extreme sub-daily precipitation in available high-resolution climate models. We find that simulated extreme precipitation increases as horizontal resolution increases but that appropriately constructed model skill metrics do not significantly change. We find little evidence that simulated extreme winter or summer storm processes significantly improve with the resolution because the model performance changes identified are consistent with expectations from scale dependence arguments alone. We also discuss the implications of these scale-dependent limitations on the interpretation of simulated extreme precipitation. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.
ISSN:1364-503X
1471-2962
DOI:10.1098/rsta.2019.0545