Epidemics, the Ising-model and percolation theory: A comprehensive review focused on Covid-19

We revisit well-established concepts of epidemiology, the Ising-model, and percolation theory. Also, we employ a spin S = 1/2 Ising-like model and a (logistic) Fermi–Dirac-like function to describe the spread of Covid-19. Our analysis show that: (i) in many cases the epidemic curve can be described...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Physica A 2021-07, Vol.573, p.125963-125963, Article 125963
Main Authors: Mello, Isys F., Squillante, Lucas, Gomes, Gabriel O., Seridonio, Antonio C., de Souza, Mariano
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Covid-19
Ising-model
Logistic function
Minireview
Percolation theory
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Summary:We revisit well-established concepts of epidemiology, the Ising-model, and percolation theory. Also, we employ a spin S = 1/2 Ising-like model and a (logistic) Fermi–Dirac-like function to describe the spread of Covid-19. Our analysis show that: (i) in many cases the epidemic curve can be described by a Gaussian-type function; (ii) the temporal evolution of the accumulative number of infections and fatalities follow a logistic function; (iii) the key role played by the quarantine to block the spread of Covid-19 in terms of an interacting parameter between people. In the frame of elementary percolation theory, we show that: (i) the percolation probability can be associated with the probability of a person being infected with Covid-19; (ii) the concepts of blocked and non-blocked connections can be associated, respectively, with a person respecting or not the social distancing. Yet, we make a connection between epidemiological concepts and well-established concepts in condensed matter Physics.
ISSN:0378-4371
1873-2119
0378-4371
DOI:10.1016/j.physa.2021.125963