Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S

Using county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with countylevel information on the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), we examine how the speed of NPI adoption affected COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Our estimates suggest that adopting safer-at-home or...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of population economics 2021-10, Vol.34 (4), p.1445-1472
Main Authors: Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, Kaushal, Neeraj, Muchow, Ashley N.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Contagion
Coronaviruses
Counties
COVID-19
Demography
Economics
Economics and Finance
Efficacy
Infections
Labor Economics
Mobility
Mortality
ORIGINAL PAPER
Political ideologies
Population Economics
Social Policy
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Summary:Using county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with countylevel information on the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), we examine how the speed of NPI adoption affected COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Our estimates suggest that adopting safer-at-home orders or non-essential business closures 1 day before infections double can curtail the COVID-19 death rate by 1.9%. This finding proves robust to alternative measures of NPI adoption speed, model specifications that control for testing, other NPIs, and mobility and across various samples (national, the Northeast, excluding New York, and excluding the Northeast). We also find that the adoption speed of NPIs is associated with lower infections and is unrelated to non-COVID deaths, suggesting these measures slowed contagion. Finally, NPI adoption speed appears to have been less effective in Republican counties, suggesting that political ideology might have compromised their efficacy.
ISSN:0933-1433
1432-1475
DOI:10.1007/s00148-021-00845-2