Identification and disruption of a neural mechanism for accumulating prospective metacognitive information prior to decision-making

• Published in: Neuron (Cambridge, Mass.) Mass.), 2021-04, Vol.109 (8), p.1396-1408.e7
• Main Authors: Miyamoto, Kentaro, Trudel, Nadescha, Kamermans, Kevin, Lim, Michele C., Lazari, Alberto, Verhagen, Lennart, Wittmann, Marco K., Rushworth, Matthew F.S.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adult; anterior lateral prefrontal cortex; Brain Mapping; Decision making; Estimates; Female; functional magnetic resonance imaging; Humans; Judgment - physiology; Magnetic Resonance Imaging; Male; Metacognition; Metacognition - physiology; Neuropsychological Tests; Prefrontal cortex; Prefrontal Cortex - diagnostic imaging; Prefrontal Cortex - physiology; Probability; prospective metacognition; Prospective Studies; Restaurants; Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation
• ISSN: 0896-6273; 1097-4199
• DOI: 10.1016/j.neuron.2021.02.024

More than one type of probability must be considered when making decisions. It is as necessary to know one’s chance of performing choices correctly as it is to know the chances that desired outcomes will follow choices. We refer to these two choice contingencies as internal and external probability. Neural activity across many frontal and parietal areas reflected internal and external probabilities in a similar manner during decision-making. However, neural recording and manipulation approaches suggest that one area, the anterior lateral prefrontal cortex (alPFC), is highly specialized for making prospective, metacognitive judgments on the basis of internal probability; it is essential for knowing which decisions to tackle, given its assessment of how well they will be performed. Its activity predicted prospective metacognitive judgments, and individual variation in activity predicted individual variation in metacognitive judgments. Its disruption altered metacognitive judgments, leading participants to tackle perceptual decisions they were likely to fail. •People prospectively estimate their “internal probability” of deciding correctly•Prefrontal area, alPFC, accumulates internal probability information•alPFC disruption impairs prospective metacognition but not perceptual decisions•alPFC is crucial for estimating performance prior to tackling a perceptual decision Miyamoto et al. found that activity in the anterior lateral prefrontal cortex (alPFC; area 47) reflects accumulation of information for prospective metacognitive decisions and predicts prospective metacognitive performance. Disruption of the alPFC by transcranial magnetic stimulation impairs accurate estimation of the probability of success prior to tackling difficult decisions with perceptual ambiguity.