Assessing the Optimality of a COVID Lockdown in the United States

Though COVID vaccines have been available since December 2020, the rate at which they are administered remains slow, and in the meantime the pandemic continues to claim about as many lives every day as the 9/11 tragedy. I estimate that with the promised rate of vaccinations, if no additional non-pha...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Economics of disasters and climate change 2021, Vol.5 (2), p.177-201
Main Author: Scherbina, Anna
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate
Climate Change
Economics
Economics and Finance
Economics of COVID-19
Environmental Economics
Environmental Sociology
International Environmental Law
Natural Hazards
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Summary:Though COVID vaccines have been available since December 2020, the rate at which they are administered remains slow, and in the meantime the pandemic continues to claim about as many lives every day as the 9/11 tragedy. I estimate that with the promised rate of vaccinations, if no additional non-pharmaceutical interventions are implemented, 203 thousand additional lives will be lost and the future cost of the pandemic will reach $1.3 trillion, or 6% of GDP. Using a cost-benefit analysis, I assess whether it is optimal for the United States to follow the lead of many European countries and introduce a nation-wide lockdown. I find that a lockdown would be indeed optimal and, depending on the assumptions, it should last between two and four weeks and will generate a net benefit of up to $653 billion.
ISSN:2511-1280
2511-1299
DOI:10.1007/s41885-021-00083-6